Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
909 AM PST SUN NOV 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
GUSTY AT A NUMBER OF PLACES. THE STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE ISALLOBARIC ANALYSES SHOWED PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER 6.5 MB
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS ENDING AT 16Z OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT
WAS NEAR 45N 139W AT 15Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD AND POSSIBLY PASS
ACROSS THE FAR N COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM/WRF WAS SLOWER AND HAD
A MUCH FARTHER SWD TRACK. RIGHT NOW...PREFER THE FASTER...FARTHER
NWD GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER SINCE SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUED TO FALL
STRONGLY WEST OF THE S CENTRAL WA COAST...WILL ADJUST THE GFS TRACK
SWD A BIT. THE SURFACE LOW MAY END UP MOVING ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY
OF KHQM OR BETWEEN KHQM AND CAPE ELIZABETH. THE MID SHIFT ALREADY
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER CONTEMPLATING EXPANDING THE WATCH TO COVER ALL OF THE
LOWLANDS FOR TONIGHT THRU MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK.

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE CASCADES OR ONCE THE 850 MB FLOW
BECOMES STRONG WLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING FOR THE OLYMPICS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WATCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...GENERALLY WET WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP
135W-140W. IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...A COUPLE
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WIND AT TIMES.
LOOKS LIKE VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10
DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH CIGS AROUND BKN030...AND SOME
HIGHER LAYERS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND DESCEND
LATER TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM
SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM. BREEZY SLY WINDS MAY DIE
DOWN A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS...AND OUR
GRADIENTS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THEN STRONG SWLY GRADIENTS DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEP LOW. MM

&&

.MARINE...SE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEP LOW. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
THRU WRN WA AND INTO SW B.C. 12Z MON...SO THAT PUTS GALES ON ALL THE
WATERS FOLLOWED BY A WLY GALE IN THE STRAIT. THE ETA TAKES THE LOW
INTO ASTORIA...AND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE DALLES 12Z SUN...WHICH WILL
NOT GIVE GALES. WE FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. MM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1. SNOW ADVISORY CASCADES TODAY.
2. WINTER STORM WATCH CASCADES AND OLYMPICS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
3. A HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
4. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
5. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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