High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BE THE WINDIEST AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON
WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE LOW FAIRLY WELL INITIALIZED
AT 00Z. A SHIP NEAR THE FRONT HAD 48 KT WINDS WHICH FIT WELL WITH
THE 45 KT GFS 1000 MB WIND AT THE SAME SPOT. FORECASTS ON TRACK AND
ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
THE NW INTERIOR AND TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PUGET SOUND
REGION...FOCUSING ON THE AREAS N OF SEATTLE. FROPA HASNT CHANGED
MUCH WITH AROUND 21Z ON THE N COAST...23Z CENTRAL COAST AND 00Z-01Z
OVER PUGET SOUND.

FOR THE WIND PROBLEM...GFS/NAM/MM5 HAVE THE 925 MB WINDS REALLY
RIPPIN AND NAM SOUNDING SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO JUST
BELOW 925 MB (ABOUT 2500 FEET). WILL SET THE MAX GUSTS TO THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE N INTERIOR SHOULD BE JUSTIFIED BUT HARD TO PREDICT JUST
WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. MOS GUIDANCE FOR WHIDBEY NAS HAS
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST 1 KNOT BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

MESO-LOW TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPIC WILL BE THE CAUSE OF WINDS OVER N
PUGET SOUND. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY HERE WITH MAX GUSTS 40-50
MPH. THIS WILL BE N OF ABOUT A NORTH SEATTLE-BREMERTON LINE. WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER FROM SEATTLE DOWN THROUGH TACOMA...AND THIS PART OF
THE AREA PROBABLY DOESNT MERIT A WIND ADVISORY. PROBLEM IS THE
CURRENT ZONE CONFIGURATION INCLUDES A BIT TOO MUCH AREA SO WILL HAVE
TO REFINE THE AFFECTED AREA IN THE STATEMENT.

FLOODING PROBLEM...LATEST 00Z NAM12 STILL PLUNKS DOWN A 12 HOUR 4.4
INCH QPF BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS...BUT JUST 2.7 INCHES OVER THE N
CASCADES. 12Z MM5GFS IS HIGHER AT 5 INCHES/3.4 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.
WITH JUST A 12 HOUR WINDOW FLOODING WILL NOT BE MAJOR...BUT
SKOKOMISH IS STILL A GOOD BET AND A COUPLE OTHER RIVERS MAY BE CLOSE
OR JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE. WILL REFRESH STATEMENTS...BUT NOTHING ELSE
NEW HERE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEATHER STILL LOOK RATHER BENIGN IN COMPARISON
TO WEDNESDAY. THE BIG LOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SETS UP OVER THE
NE PACIFIC WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. WEAK OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE AREA FOR CONTINUED RAIN OR SHOWER
MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND NW PART BUT THATS ABOUT IT. 18Z GFS SHOWS A
STRONGER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY AND A PRETTY VIGOROUS ONE
SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM)...SATURDAY ANOTHER
SHOWERY DAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN
AND WIND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND
11Z...AND MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR WRN WA BETWEEN 12-13Z.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH 50 KT SLY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
1K FT CREATING AREAS OF WIND SHEER ACROSS WRN WA.  WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE...STRONGEST FROM KPAE NWD WHERE GUSTS TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AFT 14Z. COLD FRONT PASSES AFTER 00Z.

KSEA...WARM FRONT WILL PASS KSEA AROUND 13-14Z.  S WINDS WILL
INCREASE THEREAFTER...WITH 1K FT WINDS REACHING 40-50 KT CREATING
LLWS CONDITIONS.  STRONGEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCUR 20Z-24Z...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM)...SSW WINDS AT 850 MB
LEVEL WHICH ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REACH 80KTS WED MORNING
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND AT THE ENTRANCES TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OLYMPICS AROUND MIDDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY GALES DIMINISHING. THE
INLAND WATERS SHOULD SEE GALE SOUTHERLIES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST
WINDS FROM THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL THROUGH ADMIRALTY
INLET...AROUND WHIDBEY AND INTO THE SAN JUANS. THE SOMEWHAT EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL GIVE A BIT OF SHELTERING EFFECT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE INLAND WATERS. MM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.FLOOD WATCHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
EXCEPT KITSAP AND SAN JUAN COUNTIES.
.HIGH WIND WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
AND CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...SAN JUAN ISLANDS...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES.
.WIND ADVISORY FOR PUGET SOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
.SNOW ADVISORY CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE ADVISORIES.
.HIGH SURF ADVISORY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
.STORM WARNING COAST AND ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
.GALE WARNING REMAINING WATERS.
.SEVERE CONDITIONS ON THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE