Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS COMING
IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 1204 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

EARLY MORNING RAIN DISSIPATED QUICKLY AS IT MOVED INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. NOW EVEN THE CLOUDS ARE GONE. SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS HIGHLIGHTING THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO
THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS THE FAVORED
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT HAS
GONE THROUGH LYH AND THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO KENTUCKY. ONLY
DRAWBACK TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS ALL THE
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE GSO AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS AND THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS. BASED ON THE INSTBILITY AND HISTORY OF
THE FRONT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE RAISED CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE ALSO RAISED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 640 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)

AVIATION...
AREA OF RAIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT COMES INTO THE LWB/BLF AREAS.
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDELY SCTD THE REST OF THE MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPING WITH HEATING THIS AFTN. TSTMS A DECENT BET AT
BLF/DAN THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE SERVICE AREA. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS DETERIORATING TOWARD SUNSET AND CIGS REMAINING MOSTLY IFR
THRU TNGT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 307 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER HEATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA (FA) THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE FA. THIS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO ENERGIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND REFIRE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA...COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE
GREAT LAKES ENERGY CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION.
RAIN WILL EXPAND OVER CENTRAL VA AND NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND MOVES NE.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SFC
LOW ANCHORED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MOSTLY EASTERN AND CENTRAL VA. FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FA
COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 144 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)

AVIATION...

COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD. BACK DOOR FRONT LOCATED
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS GOING TO PROCEED SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SE WV HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVER TIME. STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO BE ONGOING AT 06Z AT
LWB. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE PRE DAWN IN
LWB...B4 DISSPATING. THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. OVERALL...CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY FROM MVFR/VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN
THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE LWB WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN RISE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
BY EVENING...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE DROPPING LWB BACK DOWN
TOWARD A LOWER END MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 831 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MCS ASSOCIATED WITH OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH CWA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN PER
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THINK GRIDS/FCST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA PER APPROACHING MCS. CHC
POPS OK ATTM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. BOTTOM LINE...DONT BE SUPRISED TO HEAR SOME RAIN DROPS
OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT...ESP NRN CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 746 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006)

AVIATION...

UPSTREAM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE MASON DIXON AT 00Z WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITIY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING...LIGHT FOG MAY FORM...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG FORMATION. CURRENT
AREA OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN B4 REACHING SRN WV AND
WRN VA. REMNANTS MAY RESULT IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT AT LWB...AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN THRU THE SHORT TERM IS THAT OF PLACEMENT OF UPR LOW AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON RAINFALL/CLOUDS/TEMPS. LATE MORNING
ANALYSIS SHOWED SFC COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AIDED BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF
5-6MB/3HR THANKS TO STRONG 1035 MB HIGH BUILDING THRU THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ALOFT...PRONOUNCED CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
HELPING AMPLIFY THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE AND HELPING DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTN. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...HELPING PUSH BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSE TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA BY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING...SOME FOG IS STILL LIKELY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT COME IN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH PRECIPITATION
REACHING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 06Z THEN PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE TONIGHT WITH UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST.
CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE WEST SO PLAN TO GO WARMER THAN MAV
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN LWB.

SITUATION TOMORROW MORNING STILL APPEARS TO INITIALLY BE A CLASSIC
BACKDOOR FRONT CASE OF DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING PASSAGE OF
FRONT...AND THUS BANKING PRECIP UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY AFTN AS SFC RIDGE
NOSES DOWN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THUS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
PROGGED INSTABILITY DECENT WITH CAPES RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
LI/S AROUND -4...PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE SOME DECENT HEATING...WHICH
SEEMS LIKELY ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SO OF THE CWA GIVEN
INITIALLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS
WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL GIVEN NEARLY UNSATURATED FCST RAOBS/DRY
ENTRAINMENT ALOFT...AND SPC DAY 2 HAS THIS COVERED WELL. TEMPS
TOMORROW TRICKY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE RANGE ACRS THE
AREA...AND WILL RUN WITH NUMBERS NEAR MAV MOS WHICH DEPICTS THIS
IDEA RATHER NICELY.

MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS TO BE TOMORROW NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE AND THEN CARVING OUT A DEEP CUTOFF
SYSTEM ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO
OFFERED BY THE GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW AS MODELS HAVE A VERY HARD TIME
WITH SUCH SYSTEMS AND CONTINUE TO OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS
GO AROUND...HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH SIMILAR TO THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WESTERNMOST NAM AND
EASTERNMOST/MORE OPEN ECMWF. IN ANY CASE...STILL APPEARS BEST SHOT
AT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN
STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE. EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POSSIBILITY ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA
GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHEST THETA-E ADVECTION IN AREA OF
STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO GO NOWHERE
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THRU THE AFTN AND DEEPENING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL PRECIP. WINDS ALSO
LIKELY ON THE INCREASE GIVEN BAROCLINIC SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE COAST CLASHING WITH STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY STILL UP IN THE AIR PENDING
DEGREE/EXISTENCE OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS DRY SLOT
TO GET MIXED INTO SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK CUTOFF TO PRECIP
FRIDAY AFTN AND PERHAPS CLEARING ACRS THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RADIATE FAIRLY WELL GIVEN DRY AIR AXIS IN PLACE.
COULD THEN SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHOWERS WRAP BACK IN FROM THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HAVE HELD POPS MAINLY TO THE EAST AND IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY AWAITING WHAT SYSTEM DOES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPR SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY PLAY
A ROLE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...POTENTIALLY PROVIDING
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF CUTOFF REMAINS VERY LOW AND FOR NOW WILL BLEND THINGS A
LITTLE ON THE LESS CLOUDY/WARMER SIDE CLOSER TO HPC IDEAS. IN
EITHER CASE...STILL APPEARS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FINALLY WIN OUT
BY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ALMOST NONEXISTENT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY GIVEN STRONG RIDGING ACRS THE GULF AND WILL PLAY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING
AS UPR PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH RIDGING ACRS THE
PLAINS AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVR THE EAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-
060800-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
355 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-058-060800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
HALIFAX-
355 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL NOT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT...ISOLATED STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

NCZ002-003-051945-
SURRY NC-ALLEGHANY NC-
247 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

THROUGH 244 PM EDT...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOTTOM TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF ENNICE. HEAVY
RAINFALLS WILL AFFECT...PINE RIDGE...BOTTOM AT 340 PM EDT...MOUNTAIN
PARK AT 345 PM EDT....

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

STONEFIELD

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