Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...WEATHER WATCH 802 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM...
EXTENDED THE WATCH FURTHER NORTH FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. SFC WIND GUSTS
30-40 KTS CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. ISOLD SVR GUSTS OF
50-70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
FUEL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LINE SEGMENTS...BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELLS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 03 UTC WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY. KEPT LIGHT POPS
IN THE FAR WEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST NORTHERN VALLEYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT IT MIGHT BE WARMER IN THE SOUTH...SO
ELECTED TO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHSIDE AND NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO MOS VALUES AND ISC GROUP. HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO GFS THEN BLENDING
TOWARDS THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN BY DAY 7/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
...WEATHER WATCH 802 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC WIND GUSTS 30-40 KTS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. ISOLD SVR GUSTS OF 50-70 KTS
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
FUEL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LINE SEGMENTS...BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELLS. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

PM/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
452 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-291200-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
452 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-291200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
452 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCALIZED STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAWRENCE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
119 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-WVZ042>045-281900-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-GRAYSON-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...
INDEPENDENCE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...UNION...LEWISBURG
119 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 115 PM...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECKLEY
WEST VIRGINIA TO BRISTOL TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 200 PM AND 300
PM...AND INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY OF VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 300 PM AND 400 PM. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND
A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OF RAIN. PEA SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
252 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             ALDERSON                37.73N 80.65W
09/28/2006  E0.88 INCH       GREENBRIER         WV   UNKNOWN

&&

BS