Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
SMALL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WITH IMPRESSIVE UPR WAVE DIVING THRU EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
HELPING SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY IN THE MIDWEST. PLENTY OF
DEBRIS CLDS ACRS THE AREA TODAY HELPING HINDER HEATING TO SOME
DEGREE. HOWERVER...CONVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS/SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE MORE HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO EASTERN SECTIONS LATER.
HOWEVER LEE TROF APPEARS QUITE WEAK AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK FOCUS ALOFT
THINK CAN KEEP LIKELY POPS WESTERN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
PENDING HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION GETS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CUT
BACK TO LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS AREAS SLIDES IN BETWEEN UPPER ENERGY
FOR A WHILE LATER.

NEXT STRONG S/W WILL SHARPEN 5H TROF SAT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AND GOOD
SHOT OF UVM SUPPORT HIGH LIKELY POPS BY AFTERNOON ESPCLY WEST IN
ADVANCE OF PASSING VORT TAIL. HOWEVER TIMING MAKING FOR DIFFS IN
MORE SIG SEVERE WX EVENT PER MORE HEATING LIKE THE GFS OR HEAVY RAIN
IF UPSTREAM MCS ARRIVES SOONER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP OVERALL LIKELY
POPS GOING AND BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A LITTLE SINCE MOS HAS BEEN TOO
COOL OF LATE WITH HIGHS.

BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST WAITING FOR SFC WAVE PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY
ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TO KICK IT SOUTHWARD BY
MORNING. FEEL GFS DEPICTION OF STRONG WAVE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT BOUNDARY TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH TOMORROW AFTN. BY THIS TIME...MUCH BETTER DYNAMICS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD REGION OF 30 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE
AREA AND FCST RAOBS INDICATING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES.
OVERALL LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT STRENGTH OF WAVE
COMBINED WITH TIME OF ARRIVAL DOES WARRANT SOME CONCERN IF HEATING
CAN OCCUR.

NOW APPEARS FRONT WILL GET SHUNTED EAST FASTER ON SUNDAY AS POTENT
AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR WAVE PLOWS EAST...HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO
BETTER POPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN PROXIMITY
TO DEPARTING FRONT. SFC HIGH BRIEFLY TAKES OVER THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST...ALLOWING INFLUX OF MOISTURE
BACK TO THE AREA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BROAD WEAK TROUGHING ACRS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IN COMBO WITH
CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE WARM (BUT NOT OVERLY HOT)
AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE PRIMARILY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW A MORE
CLASSIC DIURNAL CURVE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS LIMITING SHRA/TSRA ATTM BUT APPEARS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z-20Z ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS DEEPER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
THUS WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING OR TEMPO MENTION EARLY ON SINCE EXPECT
COVERAGE TO FILL IN BY LATE AFTERNOON OTRW VFR. COLD FRONT AND NEXT
STRONGER S/W APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MAY SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
WAVES BEFORE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS SPILLS CONVECTION BACK INTO THE NW
TOWARD MORNING. IN BETWEEN APPEARS MORE FOG/HAZE AROUND WITH
MAINLY MVFR LEVEL VSBYS/CEILINGS. DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL RH SHOULD
ARRIVE SAT MAKING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH/LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-221200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW REMAINS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER IF THE AREA
SEES SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW.

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             BEDFORD CITY            37.34N 79.52W
07/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       CITY OF BEDFORD    VA   PUBLIC

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N THAXTON             37.44N 79.63W
07/21/2006                   BEDFORD            VA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AT PEAKS OF OTTER.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             BEDFORD CITY            37.34N 79.52W
07/21/2006  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF BEDFORD    VA   PUBLIC

            CONTINOUS HAIL SINCE 601 PM

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEDFORD CITY            37.34N 79.52W
07/21/2006                   CITY OF BEDFORD    VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

RMG

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