Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.AVIATION...
SCTD TSTMS IN THE WEST WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HTG WITH
LITTLE ACTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TYPICAL MVFR FOG AGAIN LIKELY AT
LYH/DAN WHILE IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT LWB. CHC OF TSTMS WILL
INCREASE TMRW AS FRONTAL BNDRY DROPS DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 619 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV AND THAT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE HIGHLANDS OF VA. I ALSO ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SW VA MTNS AND NRN MTNS OF NC.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 220 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS 5H
TROF DIPS SOUTH AND SHUNTS UPPER HEAT DOME BACK TO THE WEST THRU
WED. BACKDOOR TYPE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THE
MAIN CONCERN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IFFY ESPCLY GIVEN
BEST DYNAMICS PASSING NORTH AND MORE SUBSIDENCE OUT EAST TO THE NW
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THINK TRAILING VORT LOBE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PUNCH AT LEAST A FEW SHRA/TSRA SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE FADING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BUT NO MORE THAN 20ISH POP MAINLY FAR NORTHERN TIER
ZONES. S/W ENERGY AND DEEP RH A BIT BETTER WED AFTERNOON GIVEN
PREFRONTAL RH LOBE AND POSSIBLE ONSHORE TROPICAL CONNECTION IN NE
FLOW PER NAM. SINCE MOST MODELS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BUMP UP
MOUNTAIN POPS A BIT ALTHO IF TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS MORE SINKING
MOTION COULD CUT INTO COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS COOL TNGT PER HIER DEWPOINTS...THEN POSSIBLY A CAT OR SO
LOWER THAN TODAY WED GIVEN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE
TRAJECTORY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NAM LOOKED CLOSER THAN THE
GFS...ESPECIALLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2. ALTHOUGH 12Z NAM TAKES
THE SFC CIRC FURTHER WEST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OFFICIAL TPC
FORECAST TRACK...IT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OFFICIAL TRACK THAN
THE GFS.

A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH GRAVITATED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE DEPICTIONS OF 00Z UKMET...CANADIAN GLOBAL...NCEP
ENSMEAN...ECMWF...AND GFS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO COMBINED
HPCGUIDE AND TCP FORECASTS BLEND. FELT THAT SCT POPS SUPPORTED
FOR DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION.

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN
FOG/HAZE AT MOST SITES EXCLUDING KROA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW
COMBO WITH POTENTIAL TSRA COMPLEXES MAY SPELL ISOLATED CONVECTION
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ESPCLY BLF/LWB. SINCE COVERAGE IFFY WONT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT AND GO WITH SCT/BKN CU/AC AT VFR
LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
544 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-191000-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
544 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE AROUND 100 IN THE
FOOTHILLS...AND 100 TO 105 IN THE PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>045-191000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
544 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

WVZ045-182215-
GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LEWISBURG
504 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...

PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
MONONGAHELA NATIONAL FOREST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY NEAR THE
TOWN OF TROUT. RADAR WAS ESTIMATING AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN NORTH OF TROUT SINCE ABOUT 4PM...AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
THE AREA.

IF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED. KEEP AN EYE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS FOR RAPIDLY RISING
WATER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             8 SE RUPERT             37.87N 80.58W
07/18/2006  M0.75 INCH       GREENBRIER         WV   PUBLIC

&&

DOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
826 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

WVZ045-190130-
GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LEWISBURG
826 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LINED UP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY FROM CLEARCO NORTHEAST TO FORK MOUNTAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH ABOUT
9PM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.