Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
322 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SEE WBCWCNRNK OR OUR WEB SITE FOR COUNTIES.

GOOD SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU KY ATTM WITH TSTMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION IS VERY WARM AND MOIST THIS AFTN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
BUT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND MAX OF 25-30 MPH MOVING THRU. AS A
RESULT ANY STORMS THAT ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. PCPBL WATER IS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SO STICKING WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THRU THE
EVENING.  BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
VA...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HTG BNDRY HAS SET UP BETWEEN THIS MORNING
CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER NORTHERN VA/WV AND SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHERN VA.

WAVE WILL BE PULLING OUT LATE...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE TSTMS
LINGERING IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.  COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WARM AND MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A WARM
START TO THE DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SIMILAR READS AS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80S ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 90F IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. PWATS REMAINING TROPICAL SATURDAY TO AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL JET AND DIFFLUENCE TO ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY OF CHANGE AS RIDGING AND DRY AIR TRIES TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. I SAY TRY BECAUSE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A CUT
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE COAST. 12Z GFS HAS THIS LOW MORE
INLAND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS UPPER LOW DOES DEVELOP AND STAYS
TO THE SOUTH...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA CAPPED AND DRY.
IF THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH...THEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS  WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

850 TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH THE LATEST GFS (18-22C). THESE 850
TEMPS TRANSLATES TO NEAR NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

WENT WITH PREVAILING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS IN THE TAFS
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL IN THE WEST THRU 18Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ042-043-045 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.

&&

JS/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043-044-058-141615-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ044-
141615-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MONROE-
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AGAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-012-015>017-032-033-141615-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-SMYTH-WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL. IN ADDITION TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN
CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WVZ042-043-045-141615-
MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

ALSO...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AGAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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