Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CONVECTION FIRING EARLIER TODAY THAN SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LEE OF
THE NC BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS SE WV/HIGHLANDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE BY 23Z SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PICKING OUT INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING ALONG WESTERLY FLOW...AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WILL SEND ANY
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. SIMILAR THINKING AS YESTERDAY...IN KEEPING THE
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN GTLAKES INTO PA. WIND FLOW AND RIPPLE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTH TOWARD
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
AGAIN...POPS ARE LOW. LATER IN THE DAY...SHOULD SEE INCREASED LIFT
ON WEST WINDS...WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED TSRA IN THE FAR WEST
DURING THE AFTN. THINKING 12Z GFS OVERDONE WITH BULLSEYE VORT...A LA
FEEDBACK ISSUES. ANOTHER ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE HOT TEMPS...BUT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WHERE THE HEAT INDEX WILL ONLY APPROACH 100
DEGREES OUT EAST OF LYH AND DAN.

LOOKING AGAIN AT CONVECTION WANING DURING EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR NW CWA...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OH VLY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS 8H THETA
E RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA...W-E. WESTERLY FLOW MAY AGAIN
HAMPER DEVELOPEMENT IN LEE OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FAR WEST AGAIN...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER MAX IN THE LEE TROUGH
IN THE PIEDMONT. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY/MOISTURE TO KEEP POPS
GOING ALL NIGHT TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA STILL APPEARS TO BE
IN THE WED TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SEVERAL MCS/S TRAVERSING THE FRONT
MID WEEK.

WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...AT LEAST HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...TEMPS TUE WILL NOT BE AS WARM...THEN BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CONTINUING WITH THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LEADS TO
SOLUTION CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...WHERE COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO THURSDAY EVENING IN
THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT DRY WX
FRI-SUN...WITH SEASONAL TEMPS...WARMING AGAIN TOWARD SUNDAY AS WE
GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND WILL
SPREAD VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER
06Z. MVFR FOG AND HAZE ARE EXPECTED AT LYH AND DAN AGAIN TONIGHT
BUT THE CEILINGS AT LWB WILL PREVENT VISIBILITIES GETTING VERY LOW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...WHP
AVIATION...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-031030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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