High Wind Warning 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 140253
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-141100-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.060114T1100Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
953 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BY NOON SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 30 MPH...AND
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH BY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

$$

JJ

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 141039
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
539 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-141845-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.060114T1100Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
539 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

$$

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043>045-141845-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.060114T1100Z-060115T1100Z/
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG
539 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING 
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 141629 AAA
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1129 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-150030-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
1129 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

$$

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043>045-150030-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG
1129 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 150027
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...

.A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-150900-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
727 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH LIKELY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD MORNING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

$$

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043>045-150900-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG
727 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TOWARD MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND
MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELLING
OVERNIGHT.

$$

LAWRENCE

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 150842
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...

.A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-151100-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
342 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD LATE
MORNING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

$$

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043>045-151100-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG
342 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE 
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...AND
MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELLING
OVERNIGHT.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KRNK 151101
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
601 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM OUR REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-151215-
/O.EXP.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...HOT SPRINGS...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...
AMHERST
601 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE
AND IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. 

$$

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043>045-151215-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060115T1100Z/
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG
601 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

.AVIATION...

LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT LYH AND WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 19Z
TO SEE MIX OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS IF NOT LONGER. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR/OCNL MVFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY GIVING WAY
TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA SWEEPS NE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF
VFR/IFR BETWEEN 22Z AND MIDNIGHT BEFORE FRONT SLIDES THRU. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP WITH UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWING SE BY MORNING. THINK THE
MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN/SNOW WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE BLF/LWB
REGION SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ELSW DRY SAT WITH SLOW IMPROVING
CEILINGS TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

MAIN EARLY CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA AXIS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEGREE OF INTENSITY/LOCATION WITH
ANY NEW LEADING EDGE CONVECTION LATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER WRF AND
LATEST RUC/NAM WHICH PUTS MAJORITY ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE LACKING GIVEN
CLOUDS PLUS FOG TO START OUT EAST...AND QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN
IN 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS WILL NEED DYNAMICS/UPPER DIVERGENCE TO
OVERCOME NEGATIVE FEATURES LATER ON. FORECAST NARROW RIBBON OF
HIGHER THETA-E WEST/SOUTH WOULD INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION WESTERN SLOPES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO NC
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS BETTER. THEREFORE PLAN TO SLOW
DOWN HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE MAJORITY NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL AFTER 19-21Z FOR NOW. WILL KEEP GOING SPS BUT UPDATE AND
TRIM BACK SVR MENTION TO MAINLY THE SE THIRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY
TRY AND REDEVELOP/JUMP TO BY THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SLOW START PER FOG/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SUPPORTED
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER 12Z THICKNESS VALUES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY BUT
LIKELY A BIT AFTER FOG ACROSS THE SE STARTS TO MIX OUT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AS WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUNS
BEFORE UPGRADING CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH OR ADDING ANY WINTRY
ADVISORIES FOR LATE TNGT-SAT NGT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

AVIATION...

LIFR FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS SHALLOW AND EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND TO ROA...LYH AND DAN BEFORE 06Z. ANY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 502 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 333 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. A FEW WAA
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DIGGING THE CLOSED
LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...WITH THE GFS CLOSING IT OFF
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS POSITION. THIS MEANS THE
BEST JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA(CWA) 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE DEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND Q-VECTOR
FORCING ALSO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THEN THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LOWER IN THE EAST AND GO BACK UP IN THE WEST AS
THE UPPER LOW CROSSES VIRGINIA.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...IN THE
+4 TO +7 RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS CROSS SECTIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST
CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEST UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IS FROM 18Z SAT UNTIL
18Z SUN AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES BY.  COLD AIR COMES IN AFTER
06Z...WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED
FOR WHEN SNOW BEGINS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

QPF ON THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ON THE 00Z THAN THE 18Z RUN. IN THE
WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW RANGE SHOULD BE IN THE .25 TO
50 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SO
NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY DENSE
FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST. VISIBILITIES AT KLYH AND KDAN HAVE BEEN
QUITE VARIABLE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING IN THE WEST UNITED WITH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMITED FOG. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED VFR/MVFR WITH
SCT IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER
00Z. A LINE OF IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE END
OF TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KICK IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
     SUNDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ001-002-018 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
     SUNDAY.
WV...NONE.
&&

JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

VAZ018>020-WVZ042>045-141145-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
633 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-141145-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
633 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 20 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. 1 TO 4 INCHES SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN TAZEWELL
COUNTY. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

NCZ003-019-VAZ022>024-032>035-141145-
SURRY-WILKES-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-
633 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-141145-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
633 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ONE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1110 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-132200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...
RADFORD...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...GALAX...FLOYD
1110 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...VERY WINDY...SNOWY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST BY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY
RAIN.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 20 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR
WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. 1 TO 4 INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS ON WEST FACING SLOPES CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

NCZ003-019-VAZ022>024-032>035-132200-
SURRY-WILKES-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST
1110 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL
OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

VAZ018>020-WVZ042>045-132200-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...UNION...LEWISBURG
1110 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...WINDY...SNOWY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. 1 TO 5 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-132200-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...
KEYSVILLE
1110 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY. AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.