Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
833 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SVR THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE DECENT INSTABILITY
REMAINS AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION. WILL ALSO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN APPROACH OF FRONT FROM THE WEST AND UPR SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH ELSE IN THE GOING FCST AS
THINGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER PRECIP SOMEWHERE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDES NORTHEAST ACRS THE REGION WHILE APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDES A
CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. ALSO EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVR THE WEST WHERE
SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN QUITE
WARM ACRS THE EAST IN JUICY AIRMASS WITH WESTERN AREAS LIKELY TO
DROP TOWARD MORNING GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIRMASS AS SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 9 PM TO GET RID OF REMAINDER OF
COUNTIES IN SVR TSTORM WATC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 728 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006)

AVIATION...

APPEARS THAT HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT IS COMING TO AN END WITH MAIN
BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AREAS BY 02Z OR SO.
HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND PERHAPS A BIT BEYOND ACRS THE
EAST. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND MAYBE AN OCCASIONAL BREAK IN THE SKY
COVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED DENSE FOG/LOWER CIGS IN
THE VALLEYS WHERE CONDS MAY APPROACH VLIFR FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT MOVES THRU
THE REGION AND MUCH DRIER AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
HIGHER CIRRUS MAY HANG TOUGH ACRS THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CU DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 228 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS KY/TN.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND THE FRONT WILL THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

THE CONCERN WILL BE TWO FOLD TONIGHT. FIRST A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 900
PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES IN OUR
JURISDICTION AND ALL BUT BATH COUNTY IN OUR VIRGINIA JURISDICTION.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

THE SECOND CONCERN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
FOR POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOOD CAUSING HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE A GREATER PORTION OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...NAMELY A GREATER PORTION OF THE ROANOKE
VALLEY...ALL THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA WILL AVERAGE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO END WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND BY THE MID-AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR AND
EAST OF DANVILLE VA.  PARTS OF THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS
MAY SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE RAIN ENDS AND SKIES BEGIN TO SEE SOME
BREAKS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AND THEN OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE RISE. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO BETTER
CHANCES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.
ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AND THE SHOWERS END...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017-022-032>034-043>047-058-
     059 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ001>006-018>020 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ042 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
&&

LAWRENCE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

VAZ032-043-052330-
PATRICK VA-HENRY VA-
634 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINS...

AT 632 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...FIELDALE AT 640 PM EDT...
VILLA HEIGHTS...COLLINSVILLE AT 645 PM EDT...MARTINSVILLE CITY AT 650
PM EDT...CHATMOSS AT 655 PM EDT...LEATHERWOOD...AXTON AT 705 PM
EDT...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

VAZ058-060015-
HALIFAX VA-
722 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIRGILINA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A WIND
GUST UP TO 45 MPH. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING
THE NEXT HOUR.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

VAZ059-060045-
CHARLOTTE VA-
745 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING...

AT 740 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF REDOAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...WYLLIESBURG AT 750 PM
EDT...DRAKES BRANCH AT 800 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 PM.

RAINFALL RATE OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. WATCH FOR RAPID RISES ALONG
CREEKS ESPECIALLY WEST BRANCH WARDS FORK CREEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

VAZ044-058-060115-
HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
749 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASSING OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...

AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANVILLE TO 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHATHAM. THE LINE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY THROUGH 8:15 PM...THEN EAST ACROSS MUCH OF HALIFAX COUNTY
BETWEEN 8:00 AND 9:00 PM. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
NORTHERN HALIFAX COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WELL.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

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