Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN AGAIN WITH AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS S/W
AHEAD OF 5H TROF MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. SEEING MAINLY ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPING IN
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION BUT APPEARS MAJORITY LIMITED BY
CAP IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ATTM. AS VORT AXIS PIVOTS
ACROSS EXPECT MAY SEE A FEW MORE BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA BUT EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE NORTH CLOSER TO COLD POOL. THUS PLANNING ON CHANCE POPS
WITH HIEST POSSIBLY ENDING UP OUT EAST LATER WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDES. SOME FOG AROUND AGAIN ESPCLY
VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY GIVEN
SOME SURFACE DRYING TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS EXCEPT TO SLIP
A BIT BELOW MOS AS READINGS CHASE DEWPOINTS UNDER CLEAR/PC SKIES
LATER.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY AFTN. EXPECT BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SCT THUNDER WOULD BE ACRS THE NRN MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY CLOSEST TO BETTER DYNAMICS AND COOL POOL ALOFT AS
WELL AS BEING AIDED BY SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OFF THE RIDGES. SFC
RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION COME FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS UNDER UPR COOL POOL AND LIKELY BETTER STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE OVR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK
BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ONE OF RIDGING OVR THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
EASTERN TROUGH TRYING TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BUT FIGHTING RIDGING
OVR THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING
SOUTH THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WOULD ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
PERCENTAGES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL LOCATION OF FRONT. BEST
GUESS IS THAT FRONT WILL END UP LAID OUT ACRS THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK AND THUS HAVE HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH
LATEST HPC THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MAINLY OF THE 4-6K VFR VARIETY. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY BLF/LWB WHILE ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THUS PLAN TO LEAVE OUT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS
WITH MAINLY A CB MENTION GIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE TO THE
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE CUMULUS SHOULD FADE TO MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT ESPCLY NORMAL FOGGY SPOTS SUCH AS LWB/LYH AND DAN
WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR LIKELY. ANY FOG FADES INTO A SCATTERED
CU FIELD AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH/LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-290945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPILLING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO IF THESE STORMS ORGANIZE...VERY HEAVY
RAIN COULD AGAIN LEAD TO MORE FLOOD OR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION.

IN ADDITION RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER
WHERE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM FROM LICK
RUN. MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE DAN RIVER AROUND
SOUTH BOSTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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