Wind Advisory 8, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
314 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RW ARE CONFINED ACR XTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE AXIS OF
STRONGEST H7-H3 DCVA EXISTS.  PCPN EXITS BTWN 21-0Z AS LLVL MSTR DEC
AND MID LVL TROF LIFTS N.  HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORT SO FAR HAS BEEN
39MPH AT ATHENS AND PKB...WHILE SUSTAIN SPEEDS HV BEEN BTWN 15 TO 25
MPH.  THEREFORE...DECISION NO TO HOIST A WIND ADV HAS WORKED OUT
WELL.

AREA OF ALTOCU ACR NRN PLAINS IS THE STORY FOR TNGT.  NAM IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WHILE GFS AND SREF KEEP MSTR ABV 5KFT.
NAM ALSO PRINTS OUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF QPF ALONG AND S OF I-64.
NO MEMBER OF THE ENSEMBLES HAS QPF...SO KEPT POPS BELOW 15%...HWVR
DID MENTION THE CHC OF A RW-- OR SW-- FM 6-15Z SUN GIVEN AMNT OF
H7-H5 QVEC CONV IN THE LYR WITH RH ABV 80%

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TO START OFF THIS PERIOD.  THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT
ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO ONLY GIVE THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA A PARTLY CLOUDS SKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS FIGURED MONDAY NIGHT...OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT
BACK ON SKY COVER AND THE LOW...ALBEIT NON PRECIP POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.  THERE ARE NO LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND HAVE GENERALLY RAN NEAR MET TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND BEHAVIOR OF COLD FRONT TRAVERSING AREA
THIS PERIOD.  NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
EVEN THE FASTER MODEL SUGGESTS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FROM THE W TUE.  SHOWERS ARRIVE W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE MOVING THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ONE AS
DEW POINTS STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO 50 AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
NOT VERY SHARP.

THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION FROM ENDING IN THE W WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS FLOWS
WELL WITH DAY 4 ISSUED EARLIER WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAISED TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH SLOWER TIMING ON COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OH RIVER...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
SUNSHINE AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.  ALSO RAISED LOWS A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH FRONT NOT GETTING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE.
AM STILL A BIT BELOW THE 12Z MEX ON BOTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1215 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ROLLED WITH HPC WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH UPSLOPE POPS DIMINISHING LATE
WED.  HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO DAY 7.  THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF A NEW SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF AREA OR N OF THE AREA ENTIRELY.  RESULTS OF ISC WERE TO KICK CAN
ON THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW AND JUST KEEP IT DRY THROUGH DAY 7 NIGHT.

MADE ONLY MINOR LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION /18Z TO 18Z/...

STRONG WINDS AND LOTS OF SHEAR ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRST 6HRS OF
THE FCST.  WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NR 30MPH LAST UNTIL
DUSK THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE.  SEVERAL PIREPS HV COME IN WITH MDT TO SVR
CHOP.

MVFR CIGS CONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...HTS AND PKB WL BE SCT FM THE
GET GO...WHILE BKW AND EKN CLR OUT ARND 19-20Z.

BKN-OVC MID CLDS ARE FCST FM W TO E STARTING AT 4Z AND CARRYING ON
THROUGH 15Z.  NO PCPN IS XPCTD...HWVR A STRAY SPRINKLE CANT BE
RULED OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 943 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN JUST E OF THE OH RVR WITH MORE PERSISTENT RW
GOING THRU THE MTNS.  ANOTHER BAND OF RW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG H5
S/W IS MARCHING E THRU CNTRL OH ATT.  THIS LINE MAY CLIP NRN ZNS LT
THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN...SO LEFT POPS ACR THE N.  AS THE MID LVL WV
HITS THE MTNS...RW ARE LKLY GIVEN UPSLOPE BL AND PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR.

STRONG PRES RISES ARE MOVING THRU WV /5MB-3HRS/ AS ADVERTISED YDY
WHICH IS CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS.  GUSTS SO FAR HV BEEN 30MPH OR
LESS WITH SUSTAIN SPEEDS NOW REACHING 20 MPH.  STILL NO NEED FOR A
WIND ADV AS SUSTAIN CRITERIA  /31-39MPH/ OR GUST / GREATER THAN 45
MPH/ WONT BE ATTAINED...SAVE FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS /SNOWSHOE/.  WL
ISSUE AN SPS TO AGAIN HIGHLIGHT HIGH WINDS.

ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE MTNS WITH WRN
AREAS RECOVERING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN AS THE SUN SHOULD APPEAR.
REMAINDER OF THE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29/KF/TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-290845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
433 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.