Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.AVIATION...

UPPER TROUGH IS NOW SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND WITH MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF MICHIGAN DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 40 KTS SO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. ALL SITES LOOK TO
BE AFFECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 00Z...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVING DISSIPATED NOT LONG
AFTER SUNSET. BEHIND THE WAVE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT STILL SO THE QUESTION IS DOES A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP OR
DOES IT CLEAR AND FOG FORM. LOOKING UPSTREAM BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE LOWER MVFR TO SOME IFR CLOUDS HELD TIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING...SO ANTICIPATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK WILL FORM
VERSUS CLEARING AND THEN FOGGING. SO HAVE MAINTAIN SOME MVFR FOG
WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WESTERN SITES
HTS/PKB...COULD CLEAR LATE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY ARRIVES SO
SOME THICKER FOG COULD BE HAD THERE.

AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 14Z-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1042 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS WRN OH WILL SWING THOUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THUS
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SECOND WAVE DROPPING IN TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES
NOT SEEM TO HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
HAVE ONLY PLAYED CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TODAY SEEMS TO BE IN LINE...IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH SHOULD BE
PLENTIFUL...SO IF ANYTHING THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH
OPTIMISTIC.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 628 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006/

AVIATION...

SOME SCUD CLOUDS MAY FORM AFTER THE OVERNIGHT RAINS AT 1 TO 2 THSD
FT SCT TO BKN FOR 12/13Z...BUT VARIABLE CEILINGS/LAYERS ACROSS REGION
SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN/OVC BETWEEN 14
AND 16Z.

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE FROM INDIANA AT 11Z SHOULD TRIGGER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT 15-18Z.  CAN NOT RULE OUT T.  AFTER 00Z ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EKN-BKW.

WAS HOLDING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE 00-06Z PERIOD...BUT
CLOUDS MAY BREAK IN THE PKB-HTS-CRW CORRIDOR BEFORE DAWN. INCLUDED SOME
3 MILES IN FOG...BUT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHEN CLOUDS DISSOLVE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FRONT SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH BEST
LIFT/FORCING GONE WITH IT.  LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME SPRINKLES TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW HOURS.  STRATOCU DECK WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST FOR A PERIOD...SLOWING THE ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR.

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST IS GOOD NEWS.  ENERGY
DIGGING INTO A WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRIVE H500 HEIGHTS HIGHER OVER
THE EASTERN U.S...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA.  MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF CINH INTO MEMORIAL
DAY.  THE RESULT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING
THEIR WARMEST LEVELS THIS CALENDAR YEAR.

MOISTURE FINALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AS RIDGE EDGES EAST AND SW
FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE.  AFTERNOON CONVECTION THEN WILL BECOME
A POSSIBILITY.  THOUGHT CURRENT GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL AND MADE NO
CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY.

GENERALLY LIKED MAV TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DID TWEAK
THEM DOWN A BIT IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. GOING
FOR 90 AT HTS ON SUNDAY WAS TEMPTING...WITH H850 TEMPS OF +17 IN THE
BALLPARK FOR SUCH READINGS...BUT COULD NOT PULL THE TRIGGER JUST
YET.

P&&

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...ESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-270815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             TORNADO                 38.33N 81.86W
05/26/2006  M1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
254 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             SAINT ALBANS            38.38N 81.83W
05/26/2006  U1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            236 PM 05/26/2006 AND 251 PM 05/26/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              38.35N 81.63W
05/26/2006  M1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            OBSERVED AT NWS OFFICE.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
303 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             SAINT ALBANS            38.38N 81.83W
05/26/2006  U0.75 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            245 PM 05/26/2006 AND 300 PM 05/26/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             SAINT ALBANS            38.38N 81.83W
05/26/2006  U0.88 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            227 PM 05/26/2006 AND 242 PM 05/26/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              38.35N 81.73W
05/26/2006  U1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            247 PM 05/26/2006 AND 302 PM 05/26/2006

&&