Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...

THIS TIME FRAME IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...UNTIL LOW PRESSURE GETS MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE MIDWEST...AND TRAVELS EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 12-14C
RANGE...EXPECT WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS TO CONTINUE. SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTH AT TIMES.

BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PERHAPS CRW AND SOUTH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS EVERYWHERE...AS ANY REMNANT
BOUNDARIES FROM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOMETHING GOING...WITH STILL SOME INSTABILITY. LAPSE RATES THOUGH
NOT AS STEEP AS FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HINT AT BOUNDARY MOVING BACK
NORTH SLIGHTLY SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES. MORE
HIGHS TRICKY SUNDAY...WITH ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP
THE NORTH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS AND SREF BEGIN TO DIFFER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GFS
KEEPS H5 LOW STRONGER AND CLOSED OFF...AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
CWA...WHERE NAM AND SREF TENDS TO OPEN THE WAVE MORE.
NONETHELESS...THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRODUCING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH COOLER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND BETTER LAPSE RATES LATE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFTER HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. TUESDAY THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. NEXT SYSTEM ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 150 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AREA IS IN BETWEEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AT THIS TIME...WITH LAST
STORMS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME AND COMPLEX
UPSTREAM DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN INDIANA.  SPC HAS UPGRADED SOUTHERN
OHIO INTO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND WITH GOOD HEATING AND
STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT
AREA...EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO.  THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA AROUND 00Z OR SO AND
ROLL EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH THIS COMPLEX.  COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH GREAT
INSTABILITY FOR THE COMPLEX TO FEED ON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...

RAIN COOLED AIRMASS FROM MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT SOME LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.  MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 21Z AS
MIXING TAKES PLACE.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER OHIO AND SLIDES EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NUMEROUS AND WILL LIKELY BRING
CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER WITH
TIMING STILL BEING A BIT UNCERTAIN...GENERALLY KEPT LOW VFR
CONDITIONS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO HTS AREA AROUND 00Z AND
THEN CRW AREA AROUND 01Z AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.  A COOL STABLE
AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COMPLEX AND COULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 401 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE POSITION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZN DICTATES THE FCST IN THE LONG
TERM.  00Z NCEP CHAIN AT A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH FRONT POSITIONED ACR
CNTRL PORTIONS OF CWA THRU SUN MRNG.  MDLS THEN DIVERGE WITH NAM
KEEPING BNDRY STATIONARY...WHILE GFS PUSHES IT N OF THE M/D LINE IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE CNTRL PLAINS.  OPTED FOR
NAM/WRF SLTN...WHICH IS DOING REASONABLY WELL IN DPROG/DT CHARTS.
GFS APPEARS TO HV GRID SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES SUN NGT THAT IS WHY THE
FRONT RETREATS N INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF PA.

NOW THAT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS RESOLVED...NEXT CHALLENGE IS
TIMING/LOCATION OF MCS...WHICH IS CRUCIAL FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS AND TEMPS.  BOTH MDLS SHOW ANOTHER MCS TRAVERSING THRU SAT NGT
THEN AGAIN SUN NGT.  ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TIP THE SCALES ON POPS TO
LKLY OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING THE NGT.  NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT SVR
POTENTIAL WITH NOCTURNAL TSTMS AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL.

DEPENDING HOW MANY MCSS HIT AT NGT AND LOCATION OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION OVER THE COURSE OF THREE DAYS...HIGH WATER COULD BECOME A
PBLM.  IF TRAINING OCCURS...RAINFALL AMNTS OVER A FEW DAY PERIOD
COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD ANY VERBIAGE
INTO THE HWO ATT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
452 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
452 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AS A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS...AS FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED WHERE REPEATED EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
RAISE THREAT FOR SAID RAINFALL BECOMING EXCESSIVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

TRM / 29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
646 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             PARKERSBURG             39.26N 81.54W
04/14/2006  U0.75 INCH       WOOD               WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            621 PM 04/14/2006 AND 636 PM 04/14/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
653 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             SAINT MARYS             39.40N 81.20W
04/14/2006  U0.25 INCH.      PLEASANTS          WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            633 PM 04/14/2006 AND 648 PM 04/14/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
656 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             SAINT MARYS             39.40N 81.20W
04/14/2006  U0.75 INCH       PLEASANTS          WV   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            637 PM 04/14/2006 AND 652 PM 04/14/2006

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             LOWELL                  39.53N 81.51W
04/14/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0706 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOWELL                  39.53N 81.51W
04/14/2006  M62.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KMC

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