Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.AVIATION...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME. LINE IS REMAINING ACTIVE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE
TO FIRE CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF MAIN LINE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 06Z...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CIGS ACROSS SITES TO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORIES AS THE
BOUNDARY ADVANCES. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. DYING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ALSO REINFORCE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 333 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING
PRODUCED BY CLOSE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF WEATHER. GFS SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK THROUGH ITS
SHORT TERM...SO THROUGH 84 HOUR FORECAST UTILIZED THE NAM. BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
..WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR
TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE VALUES.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 258 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS
GOING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNSET. NE ORIENTATION OF
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THE DIVERGENCE AREA TO THE NE THIS
EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE LATER TONIGHT AS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH FLOW. BUT...IT WILL TAKE SECOND STRONGER WAVE TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. EXACT LOCATION OF FRONT WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY. HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPS UP TONIGHT OHIO RIVER WEST BUT EXPECT
FEW CLOUDS EAST. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR FRIDAY HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS
OHIO RIVER WEST WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN. IN WEST VIRGINIA HAVE PUSHED
THE MAX TEMPS IN SW TO NEAR 90.

AVIATION...
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS AND THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE GUIDING THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG PROBLEMS. NEW TAFS WILL BETTER
FOCUS ON FOG TONIGHT AFTER WE SEE WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FRONTS REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR
STILL.  CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...SE OHIO AND N AND W WEST VIRGINIA
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA SHOULD EXPERIENCE OFF AND ON HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART.  STILL WE ARE IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO A ROUGE
POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER
TODAY.  TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT...SO
HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH.  STILL HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS SE OHIO...WHERE MORE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...GIVING SE OHIO AND NW WEST VIRGINIA A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY AS A RESULT ACROSS THAT AREA.  IN FACT...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO RECEIVE SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-221000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
400 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM
AND UNSTABLE SIDE.  AS A RESULT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.  TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...BRINGING A
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THIS ONE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH...POSSIBLY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OF WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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