Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NE CWA...DUE TO LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE...STORMS HEADING THAT WAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ALONG THAT AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.  3 HOUR FFG IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE WATCH
AREA...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES CAUSING SMALL STREAMS TO LIKELY SWELL OR
GO OVER THEIR BANKS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z FOR THE
NORTHERN...AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WILL LIKELY
TRIM THIS BACK LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS MAIN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDES EAST.  MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.  BOTH AND WRF
AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS IN THE
FACT THAT THE WRF IS JUST A LITTLE QUICKER TO PUSH THE PRECIP AND
COLD FRONT TO OUR SE.  PLENTY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.  A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER ON THIS EVENING...IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO GO OVER THE SAME AREA.  THE LOWEST FFG IS ACROSS THE NE CWA...SO
THIS IS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT.  WITH THE LACK
OF HAIL WITH A LOT OF THESE STORMS...RADAR ESTIMATES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK TO EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS FIGURED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING AWAY
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF OF
OUR AREA...BRINGING IN SOME RETURN FLOW.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE PICTURE AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  OVERALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...USED HPC GRAPHICS...WHICH
WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE ECMWF.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

AVIATION...

VFR FOR ALL EXCEPT BKW...WHICH WAS STILL MVFR DUE TO HAZE.  OTHER
SITES WILL SOON JOIN BKW IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...IF ONLY TEMPORARILY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLL IN.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST LOCATIONS OF PKB AND CKB WILL GET
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...ALL
SHOULD FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING OUR WAY...PUSHES INTO SE
OHIO.  BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE
TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SE OHIO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 323 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BASING WED-THU FORECAST ON FRONT ALONG OHIO RIVER VCNTY PKB AT 12Z
WED THEN SLOWLY SINKING SE...REACHING BKW NEAR 00Z THURSDAY. NAM
FASTER IN DRYING THE NORTH...BUT TRIED TO SLOW THAT DOWN...TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION BUT MAY BE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUSLY GRIDS WERE
ALONG THOSE LINES ANYWAY. INCREASED CLOUDS WED AND LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT.

WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINS ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF WV
MOUNTAINS GET HIT TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. LETS HOPE THE CLOUDS LIMIT
THE CAPE AND INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A LOT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. REMOVED THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THINKING SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG FORMING BEHIND FRONT IN WV AND ERN KY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL HANGS OVER US THU INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASSING. THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THE AIR WILL
BE TOO DRY...AND PROBABLY JUST GENERATE SOME DAYTIME CU OR
STRATOCU CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES MADE FOR WEEKEND ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ016>020-027>032-038>040-046-047 UNTIL
     2 PM WEDNESDAY.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF/JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-
037>040-046-047-051030-
GREENUP-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
618 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL...MAINLY NUISANCE...WATER PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT LESS...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO TRAIN OVER AN AREA...IT MAY PRODUCE HIGH WATER ALONG AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033>036-051030-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
618 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL...MAINLY NUISANCE...WATER PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO TRAIN OVER AN AREA...IT MAY PRODUCE HIGH WATER ALONG AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 39.04N 82.65W
07/04/2006  U1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            401 PM 07/04/2006 AND 416 PM 07/04/2006

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
425 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             WELLSTON                39.11N 82.55W
07/04/2006  U0.88 INCH       JACKSON            OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            407 PM 07/04/2006 AND 422 PM 07/04/2006

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
438 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW HAVEN               38.99N 81.97W
07/04/2006                   MASON              WV   PUBLIC

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE - TREES DOWN - TRAILER PARK DAMAGED
	    NICKEL SIZED HAIL.
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            230 PM 07/04/2006 AND 300 PM 07/04/2006

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

OHZ085-WVZ007-042115-
MASON-MEIGS-
442 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF RUTLAND...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH
OF RIO GRANDE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE TUPPERS
  PLAINS...SALEM CENTER...HARRISONVILLE...DYESVILLE...DARWIN AND
  CHESTER.

ANOTHER STORM WAS NEAR GALLIPOLIS IN NORTHERN MASON COUNTY MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

WVZ026-042130-
BOONE-
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR BOONE COUNTY.

AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE JULIAN AND
  DANVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08