Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.AVIATION...
BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD OVERSPREADING SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS AND VSBYS NOTED OVER EASTERN SITES WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED...AS BOUNDARY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
CLEARING IS HELPING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOPES...IN A
LINE FROM KBKW-KCKB IN THE STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANOTHER MORNING
OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ON TAP EARLY TUESDAY AS NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER TO SCOUR THE LOW LEVELS. BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SLIDE TO OUR
EAST LATE TUESDAY AS TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH SLIGHT
CLEARING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO 8PM TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO TO FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS FORMING IN A LINE FROM KEKN TO
KCKB...AND PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME TRAINING CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW.
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH PER
HOUR RANGE...EXCEEDING FFG FOR SEVERAL SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...AS MAX DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES. STEERING FLOW IMPROVES SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 133 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER WAVE MOVES UP COAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST.
NORMALLY THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN THE MAIN WAVE WILL NOT PUSH TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY SUN THIS MAKES
PULLING OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN
ADDITION...WEAK WAVES LOOK TO BE RIDING THROUGH THE PATTERN AFTER
THE MAIN WAVE MOVES EAST. RATHER THEN TRY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE THROUGH PERIOD UNTIL A CLEARER DRY PATTERN CAN BE
IDENTIFIED. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT WE SHOULD RETURN TO A PATTERN
OF WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES AS THE SUN CAN DO ITS JOB.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 352 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

6Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC TROF BTWN THE OH RVR AND I-79 CORRIDOR.
BAND OF RA CONTS TO TRAIN ACR ERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY...HWVR INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH HRLY AMNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

WRF/LCL WRF/WSETA/SREF IN A GOOD CONSENSUS FOCUSING AXIS OF HVY
RAINFALL IN TWO AREAS TDY AND TNGT.  FIRST ONE IS ALONG THE OH RVR
UNDERNEATH SFC TROF...SECOND ON THE ERN SLOPES.  AREAL COVERAGE OF
RA PICKS UP AFT 12Z AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LVL WAVES INTERACT
WITH A H2 JET.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH A LTL
IN THE I-79 CORRIDOR AND THE MTNS AS SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING OCCURS
CREATING A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT.  BUT GIVEN DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...NOT GOING BELOW LKLY POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

WET WX CONTS TNGT ESP IN VCNTY OF THE SFC TROF FROM PKB TO HTS...BUT
A CONTINUED DECREASE IN COVERAGE FCST IN THE MTNS AS SE WINDS
PERSIST.  AREAS OF FG/LOW CLDS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFT MDNGT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005-006-013-015-024>028-030>040-046-
     047 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ105 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
&&

AVIATION...KMC
HYDROLOGY...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-014-016>020-029-
270730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-PUTNAM-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-
409 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BECOME
QUITE STRONG.  MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-015-024>028-030>040-046-047-
270730-
LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-KANAWHA-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
409 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY AS PERIODS OF
RAIN CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES IN A HOUR CAN CAUSE HIGH WATER. THE MOST PRONE
LOCATIONS ARE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY...WHERE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR CAN LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY LETTING UP LATE
IN THE DAY...THUS KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS GOING.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEREBY BRINGING AN END TO THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...FOR ONCE AND FOR ALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

29 / TRM