Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WGUS71 KRLX 150053
FFSRLX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
850 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

OHC127-150100-
PERRY OH-
850 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PERRY COUNTY...
IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS HEAVY RAIN IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 

HOWEVER...PERRY COUNTY STILL REMAINS IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH 
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS 
WESTERN OHIO MAY MOVE INTO PERRY COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3993 8247 3959 8239 3954 8201 3977 8202
      3993 8216

$$

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...

RW/TRW ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS HV BEEN ATTAINED
AND ITS ALL THATS REQUIRED IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT.  AREAL
CVRG OF STORMS WL INC THE BALANCE OF THE AFTN THRU THE EVNG HRS.  AN
MCS IS FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN AND TREK E THIS
EVNG REACHING WRN AREAS BTWN 3-6Z.  A SECOND CLUSTER CLOSER /LIKELY
STRONGER/ BUILDS S ACR OH AND TRAVERSES NRN XCTNS THIS EVNG.  BOTH
BRING UNWELCOME RAIN DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS.  CLOUDS A TOUGH
CALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PREDAWN HRS...THINK ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK DEVELOPS SINCE ATMS IS TOO WARM FOR FG /TD > 70F/...OTRW PCLDY.

UPR AIR SYSTM MOVES THRU A LTL FASTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AS SERN
OH AND NERN KY SHOULD BE DRY BY DAWN SAT...WHILE SCT-NUM RW/TRW WL
BE ONGOING IN THE MTNS.  H5 TROF AXIS IS E OF THE MTNS ARND
15Z...HWVR LLVL MSTR REMAINS QUITE HIGH ALLOWING FOR ISOLD TRW IN
THE MTNS TMRW AFTN.  THEREFORE...LEFT THE SMALL POP FM EKN-CWD BTWN
18-23Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5H RIDGE WITH DECENT HEIGHT RISES TO DEVELOPS TROUGH EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

DECENT CAPPING ALOFT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A
MINIMUM MOST DAYS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SETS
UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE TO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE
AT BREAKING RIDGE AND CAPPING EFFECT DOWN. BUT HAVE LEFT JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TUES INTO WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR PROXIMITY TO BNDRY.

HAVE TRIMMED FCST HIGHS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SINCE WE WILL STILL BE IN A DRYING TREND...AND GROUND IS
STILL DRYING. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE ON TRACK WITH WARMING TREND AS
HGT AND THICKNESS VALUES TREND UPWARDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LETTING FFA RIDE THRU THE 3AM AS SCT-NUM RW/TRW HV DEVELOPED WITH A
FEW HRS OF HEATING.  RAINFALL RATES SO FAR HV BEEN 0.50 INCHES AN HR
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  MAIN CONCERN TNGT IS TRAINING OF
STORMS...ESP ACR THE TUG BASIN WHICH IS GETTING HIT ATT.  ALL THE
INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A HIGH WATER THREAT / LO FFG/
13-14KFT WRM CLD DEPTHS/ H8 DWPTS OF 16C/ AND 10-15KTS OF FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006/

AVIATION /18Z TO 18Z/...

MVFR WX DOMINATES MOST OF THE PD...OCNL VFR THIS AFTN AS CIGS WL BE
SCT AT TIMES.  HWVR AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...LOOK FOR BKN CIGS AREA
WIDE DUE TO LOTS OF LLVL MSTR. SCT RW/TRW ARE FCST THIS AFTN ON THRU
5Z OR SO.  ANY STORM WL BRING VIS DOWN TO IFR AND PERHAPS CIGS AS
WELL.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT PREVAILING TSTMS GVN GARDEN
VARIETY COVERAGE XPCTD...SO CB WL SUFFICE.

IFR CONDS /1-2SM VIS/ AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HRS...BUT A
STRATUS DECK KEEPS CIGS FM GOING INTO THE DIRT.  CLDS BREAK UP BY
14-15Z MUCH LIKE THIS MRNG OWING TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD.  HTS AND PKB
BCM VFR BY MID MRNG SAT AS AN UPR AIR SYSTM PASSES ALLOWING DRY AIR
TO FILTER IN.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 957 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

RADAR IS QUITE FOR A CHANGE WITH MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE THIS
MRNG.  TROPICAL AIRMASS RMNS WITH DWPTS IN THE LWR 70S AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPR 80S LTR TDY.  STRATUS DECK HAS LIFTED
ACR THE SRN COAL FLDS...BUT HAS RAPIDLY FILLED IN WITH LO BASE CU.
ALONG AND N OF I-64...OVC CONDS CONT WITH ISOLD RW IN THE NRN MTNS.

LCL WRF DOESNT POINT TO MUCH ACTIVITY TDY...HWVR RUC AND WSETA FIRE
THINGS UP THIS AFTN S OF I-64.  THE LATTER SLTN SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
MOST SUNSHINE OCCURS THERE.  DID RAISE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH
NMBRS ALREADY PUSHING 80F IN THE TUG BASIN.  CONV TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LWR 80S...SO ANY CLEARING IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A BKN CU DECK.
ALSO WL BE WATCHING AREA OF TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP IN IND/IL VCNTY
THIS AFTN...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MV E REACHING OH RVR BTWN 3-6Z TNGT.

HYDROLOGY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTS THRU 3AM WITH 1HR FFG ARND 3/4 AND 3HR A
SMIDGE HIGHER.  ATMS REMAINS UNCHANGED FM YDY WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN
NR 2.0 INCHES...WARM CLD DEPTHS OF 13KFT...AND 10-15KTS OF FLOW.
ANY TRW WL DUMP QPF CLOSE TO /IF NOT EXCEEDING/ FFG.  NOT AS
CONCERNED ABT NUMEROUS TO WDSPRD RW/TRW OVR NRN XCNTS GIVEN AIR IS A
BIT MORE STABLE THERE...HWVR HV TO RESPECT LO FFG AND KEEP THE WATCH
GOING AREAWIDE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL
     3 AM SATURDAY.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 3 AM
     SATURDAY.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM...KMC
HYDROLOGY...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
458 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO RECENT RAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND CREEKS. MANY AREAS ARE SO SATURATED THAT LESS THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

WVZ025-026-141945-
BOONE-LOGAN-
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY...AND EXTREME EASTERN BOONE.

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ECHART...
  BALD KNOB...MAN...MALLORY AND AMHERSTDALE-ROBINETTE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WITH THIS STORM...AS IT WILL ONLY TAKE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN
IN AN HOUR TO CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

WVZ005-013-142000-
LINCOLN-WAYNE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY...AND LINCOLN COUNTY.

AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF HARTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RANGER...
  KIAHSVILLE...GILL AND DEXTER.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  STILL...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH PER
HOUR...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

WVZ033-142000-
MCDOWELL-
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR EASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY.

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF WELCH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
  NORTHFORK...KIMBALL AND KEYSTONE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.
THESE SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

WVZ033-142015-
MCDOWELL-
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY.

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY...JUST SOUTH
OF WAR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF
TO AROUND AN INCH IN AN HOUR. THIS RAIN COUPLED WITH ALREADY WET
SOIL FORM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO
RISE.  MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.  TURN AROUND
AND DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

OHZ066-142100-
PERRY-
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOMERSET...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
EAST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY
  STATE FOREST...NEW LEXINGTON AND JUNCTION CITY.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

OHZ075-142130-
ATHENS-
443 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR WESTERN ATHENS COUNTY.

AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NELSONVILLE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BURR OAK
  STATE PARK...TRIMBLE...THE PLAINS...JACKSONVILLE...GLOUSTER AND
  CHAUNCEY.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THIS RAIN COUPLED
WITH ALREADY WET SOIL FORM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS TO RISE.  MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

11