Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
343 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY. THE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
SNOWFALL RATES BECOMING MORE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL OF 15 TO 25 INCHES
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH LOCAL 30 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM ALONG THE FAR
WEST.  A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 5 AM MONDAY FOR
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SUBLETTE COUNTY.  MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WEST SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SWEETWATER COUNTY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  AT
THIS TIME 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF ROCK
SPRINGS.  THE STORM WILL BRING STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM
THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS.  WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS AROUND CLARK.  STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN
SWEETWATER...SOUTHERN FREMONT AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES.
ISOLATED AREAS THERE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.  LITTLE
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING REASONABLE.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EVENTS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS DURATION. WILL GO WITH SNOW LIKELY OUT WEST
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. JET STREAK POISED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY TO
AID IN POTENTIAL UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
FLAT RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN BY FRIDAY PER MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL EVEN ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAILY
VARIATIONS DUE TO WINDS...TROUGH PASSAGES AND BRIEF INVERSIONS. WIND
SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG AT TIMES IN THE WIND CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FAR WEST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK...TETON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.  ZONES 1..
12..13..22..24 AND 27.

WINTER STORM WATCH 5AM MONDAY THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...SUBLETTE COUNTY AND THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS.  ZONES 2..14..15..25..26.

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH
8 AM MONDAY MORNING. ZONE 3.

&&

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC

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