Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
304 AM MDT MON AUG 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WYOMING ATTM. A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TODAY. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
WHICH...ALONG WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...WILL BRING THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND HELP TO INCREASE OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THIS
INCREASED WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE 700MB TEMPERATURES TO PLUS 14 TO 16 C OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES OVER THE VALLEYS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE TO THE MID 90S WITH WEST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MONTANA BY
WEDNESDAY FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL STAY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO TREND MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA AND ANOTHER ONE QUICK ON ITS HEELS...DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DRAG A FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE
TOO DRY WITH THIS FRONT...SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...
PWATS NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE EAST...AND DECENT
INSTABILITY. AREAS WITH THE BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. AREAS ACROSS SW WYOMING WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT GIVEN
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE. THIS TROF WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION FALLS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE LAYER WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HAHN

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