Wind Advisory 27, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS75 KREV 161657
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
857 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006

NVZ003-161800-
/O.CAN.KREV.WI.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-061116T1900Z/
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPARKS...VERDI...GARDNERVILLE
857 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE RENO...CARSON
CITY...MINDEN AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND IN WIND PRONE AREAS
ALONG HIGHWAY 395.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006

.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS FRONT APPROACHED
THE AREA. MOST WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER WIND
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS GALENA...THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 395 WILL BE AFFECTED BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED UNTIL 11AM. BENINATO

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG 130 KT PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER NRN CA AND NRN NV WITH SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN CA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NRN CA-NRN NV TODAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF
TAHOE AND FAR NWRN NV WITH ISOLATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SYSTEM.
700 MB WINDS 50-55 KTS HAVE TRANSLATED TO SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH. HOWEVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN PRONE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 395...HAVE BEEN GUSTED AS HIGH AS
56 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 90 MPH THIS MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING TO AROUND 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THESE HIGHER WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE MORE ISOLATED...WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN ZONES
FOR NOW. HOWEVER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TAHOE/PYRAMID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS LASSEN COUNTY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHICH
MAY PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE AGAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SIERRA COULD SEE UP TO 0.25
INCHES OF RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
8000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MINOR
DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES THEREFORE LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH WRN NV VALLEYS MAKING IT UP INTO THE
MID 60S DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
IN THE RENO AREA HAVE YET TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SPILL
OVER AND HEIGHTS FALL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN UP TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BENINATO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS COMING AROUND TO A GOOD CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN TUESDAY AND BEYOND. RIDGING
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO
PACNW MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
MONDAY BUT A BIG EVENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH HEIGHTS
REMAINING HIGH AND THE BULK OF THE STORM REMAINING NORTH OF
US...HAVE JUST KEPT IN THE 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN TWO GENERAL CAMPS. GFS SHOWS A
FASTER ZONAL FLOW WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EURO/CANADIAN ARE SLOWER WITH
MORE RIDGING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MOVING IN WED INTO THUR. AT THIS TIME...LIKE THE EURO IDEA...BUT
SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH
20-30 POP SCENARIO (CLOSE TO CLIMO) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ALL MODELS AT LEAST DOES NOT
PENETRATE SOUTH OF I-80 SO AT LEAST I CAN SAY RELATIVELY DRY SOUTH
1/4 OF AREA WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IT ALSO LOOKS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FINALLY...MODELS ARE
ALL HINTING AT A PATTERN IN TRANSITION SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE RATHER
LOW IN THE EXTENDED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE. WEAKENING FRONT IN EXTREME NW NV
MAY HAVE CLODS LOW ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS...BUT
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10000 FT ASL. WALLMANN
&&

REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST NVZ003.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO