Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES OCCURRED IN RENO THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL BE A RECORD WARM MINIMUM IF IT HOLDS UP THROUGH ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
FORECASTED H5 HEIGHTS PEAK AT 600DM NEAR ELKO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH BROUGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND WESTERN NV. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTER
INCH AND ONE INCH OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AND LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE HOWEVER SO NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED.
WILL ISSUE A BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT OF GETTING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN
THE HOT AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST AT RENO WHERE
CURRENT RECORDS ARE 104 TO 106 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RC

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE HEAT PEAKS FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY (UNLESS LOCAL CONVECTION
WRECKS HEATING)...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF NEVADA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER AFTERNOON
WEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...FOR A MODEST COOLING TREND
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY...
WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK (JUST NOT AS RIDICULOUSLY ABOVE NORMAL).

PRECIPITATION WISE...CONVECTION WILL BE A FACTOR EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TO BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE...I LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON
WESTERLIES STRENGTHENING MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OUT OF
NEVADA...COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED TO ISOLATED IN THE SIERRA
FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE WESTERLIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...I LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED IN BOTH DAYS IN ALL ZONES. THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
FINE TUNED OR PUSHED EAST OF IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SIERRA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS IF PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT. SNYDER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...
WITH ISOLATED -TSRA SPREADING NORTH TO A SUSANVILLE TO WINNEMUCCA
LINE BY 00Z. ANY STORM COULD DROP WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO DIE OFF BY AROUND 04Z. AFTERNOON -TSRA TO FIRE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A KAAT TO KLOL LINE. SNYDER
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&