Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WGUS75 KREV 250310
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
808 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

CAC051-NVC005-019-250400-
MONO CA-LYON NV-DOUGLAS NV-
808 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTH CENTRAL LYON AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
MONO COUNTIES...

AT 801 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING MUDSLIDES OVER THE JACKASS BURN AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE JACKASS CREEK AND THE JACKASS FLATS 
SOUTH OF WELLINGTON

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS AND COUNTRY ROADS.

LAT...LON 3857 11955 3848 11934 3869 11916 3880 11942

$$

JHW

000 
WGUS75 KREV 250357
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
855 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

CAC051-NVC005-019-250410-
MONO CA-LYON NV-DOUGLAS NV-
855 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM PDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTH CENTRAL LYON AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONO
COUNTIES...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE 
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS 
ENDED. HOWEVER...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT RUNOFF FROM THE 
THUNDERSTORM MAY HAVE WASHED OUT EAST SIDE LANE IN MONO COUNTY. 
ANYONE TRAVELLING ON THE SIDE ROADS NEAR THE JACKASS BURN AREA 
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY HAVE CHANGED.

LAT...LON 3857 11955 3848 11934 3869 11916 3880 11942

$$

JHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND PW VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE AN
INCH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER DYNAMICS EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF RENO/LAKE TAHOE AND OVER NRN
LASSEN/NRN WASHOE/MODOC COUNTIES. A VERY ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP
IN THE RENO AND LAKE TAHOE AREAS TODAY. SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT RIDGETOP MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TSTM ACTIVITY
EAST OF RENO TODAY. MODELS HINT AT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TONIGHT DOWN
SOUTH AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND HIGH. HARD TO TELL IF THESE ARE
REAL OR JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO CONTINUED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER MORNING LOWS BUT DID NOT ADD TSTMS TO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SOUTH...BUT CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WORDING FOR NRN AND ERN
ZONES. LITTLE CHANGE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE RENO AREA WITH POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A TSTM
ON TUESDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE COMES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
PUSH TSTM ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST...MAINLY INTO MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES WITH A DRYING TREND FURTHER NORTH. DID NOT REALLY SEE MUCH
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. BENINATO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING FOR BRINGING THE LONG HEAT WAVE TO AN
END BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCING A LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST COAST AND
SHIFTING THE RIDGE CENTER EWD TO THE CENTRAL US. FRIDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...WHILE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD SEND VALLEY TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID
90S BY SATURDAY AND IN THE LOWER 90S FOR SUN-MON. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROF AND IT EVEN DROPS MAX TEMPS BELOW 90 BY
SUNDAY...FOR NOW A MORE MODERATE COOLING IS FAVORED IN THE EXTENDED
WHEN TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE INTO ACCOUNT. THE MOST WELCOME
CHANGE WILL BE THE END OF THE 70 DEGREE MIN TEMPS IN THE WRN NV
VALLEYS...WITH MOST AREAS DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER
50S BY THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEE SIDE WEST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE STRAY TSTMS IN THE FAR
SRN AND NRN ZONES FRIDAY...THEN LIMITED TO SRN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES FOR SAT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY WHERE WEAK INSTBY LINGERS. AN
OUTLYING SCENARIO ON THE LATEST CANADIAN MODEL AND A COUPLE OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN UP BY THE WEST COAST TROF INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE PREVAILING DRY AND STABLE SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED...THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONLY SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION BUT
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP APPEARS LOW. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXCEPT ISOLD MVFR IN -TSRA THRU 03Z AND AGAIN ON TUES AFT
20Z. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&