Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WGUS75 KREV 190046
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
545 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

CAC051-NVC005-190055-
MONO CA-DOUGLAS NV-
545 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONO COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED WEST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE THREAT OF 
FLASH FLOODING WITH IT. NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.  

LAT...LON 3856 11932 3872 11934 3872 11946 3853 11945

$$

SS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SFO TO SLC. A ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS HELPING TO KEEP THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE IN PLACE. MOISTURE WAS INCREASING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AS
THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WAS COMBINING WITH AN UPPER LOW
OFF NORTHERN BAJA TO STEER WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS ACROSS NEVADA AND
CALIFORNIA. ONE OF THE VORTICITY FEATURES WAS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND WAS HELPING TO FIRE UP THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONO COUNTY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NV. AT 2PM...CELLS WERE ALSO
POPPING IN ALPINE COUNTY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
FORMING NORTH OF THERE TO THE WEST OF RENO. GIVEN THE SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX AND THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS/PWS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FROM
ABOUT RENO SOUTHWARD AND SCATTERED OVER MONO COUNTY. HIGHER POPS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 AS THE VORT MAX
CONTINUES MOVING NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE STALLS NORTH OF
RENO LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HALTS ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.

THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BISECTS THE CWA EXTENDING FROM CEDARVILLE TO TONOPAH.

AFTER A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S. RC

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MONSTER RIDGE FROM LATE THIS WEEK TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SPELL CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SLACKING
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE DIMINISHED RIDGE AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GFS(X)MOS FROM 00Z TO 12Z...I
BUMPED HIGHS UP TO BETWEEN GFS(X)MOS AND THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WISE...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH THE FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY...I CONFINED WEATHER MENTION TO THE
SIERRA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND NO
CONVERGENCE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST...I
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY (-4C
AT 500 MB) OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES FOR CONVECTION...DESPITE HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 DEGREES.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PROGS INDICATE ENOUGH WEAKENING/SHIFTING
EASTWARD OF THE 500 MB RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF AFTERNOON
WESTERLIES TO NEVADA. THIS CAUSED ME TO SPREAD POPS EASTWARD INTO
ZONE 4 AS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS THERE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO EASE OFF A FEW DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS. SNYDER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA ALONG TWEB ROUTE 402 THRU 03Z. A FEW -TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SIERRA AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE
TAHOE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WILL SPREAD
FROM MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TUESDAY INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY. SNYDER
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&