Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DUE TO WATCH ISSUANCE...GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS ALREADY
ISSUED.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TRIAD
UNTIL 5 PM...AND FOR MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
UNTIL 8 PM.  PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS POINT TO THE WATCHES BEING
CANCELLED EARLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW APPEARED
TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...AND CLINTON.  INSTABILITY AXIS ON MSAS
EXTENDED OVER THAT AREA...WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -5C.  BEST
CONVERGENCE LOCATED THERE AS WELL...AND THE RUC...IN THE SHORT
TERM...APPEARS TO HIT THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE JUST AFTER DARK.

ALREADY RAPID DRYING OCCURRING ON VISIBLE IMAGES SURGING SOUTH
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.  RUC...NAM...AND GFS SHOW RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THETA-E OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BY 06Z.
HAVE CONFINED SHOWERS TO MOSTLY EARLY IN THE FIRST PERIOD...LEAVING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT IN FAR EASTERN
ZONES.  SKIES SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE IS THE RULE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  GFS FORECASTS
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THERE.  UNDER LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO AROUND 40 IN SOME SPOTS TUESDAY NIGHT...
MAYBE SOME ISOLATED MID-TO-UPPER 30S...BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY PATCHY FROST AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...
WITH THE LOWEST MIN TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY AROUND 40.  ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY OF THE
HIGH VARIETY...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
KEEPING THE REGION DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  BY FRIDAY...THE 06Z GFS
SLOWLY MOVED THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...MAINTAINING THE BEST THREAT
OF SHOWERS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.  ORIENTATION
OF THE 700MB FLOW WOULD SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...POSSIBLY COMING CLOSE TO THE TRIAD.  THE
12Z GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE DGEX AND THE CANADIAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE STATE PROVIDING FOR
AMPLE QPF THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN ZONES.

PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS
CURRENTLY TO BE SATURDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE.  BY SUNDAY...THE GFS HAS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE...
BUT THE FRONT LIKELY WILL NOT GET TOO FAR SOUTH...AND HPC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAKES THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY IFFY.  HAVE OPTED FOR SIMPLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY IN
DEFERENCE TO NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BELIEVE
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ARE CERTAINLY GREATER THAN
ON SUNDAY.  GFS PROVIDES FOR THE RETURN OF THE FRONT BACK TO THE
NORTH MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE LEANING TOWARD MORE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS.  IN FACT...THE
NOGAPS KEEPS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESSENTIALLY DRY DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  OVERALL...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY SMALL CHANCES DURING OTHER
PERIODS WHICH WILL REFLECT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY SILENT IN THE ZFP.  WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY...
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. CREATED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR KINT AND KGSO FOR IFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
BETWEEN 18-19Z. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
22-00Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 06Z IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT/DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
445 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006

NCZ021>025-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-180845-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
445 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN PENNY SIZE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 64... AND PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF NOON AND 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY... HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY
TODAY... HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>011-026>028-180845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
445 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A STORM
OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG... PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS... HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY... HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY... HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GIH

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