Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT: THE VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY DIVING THROUGH THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND WESTERN TN/KY IS ON PACE TO SWEEP THROUGH NC THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURFACE FRONT.
WHILE HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT... STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE BIGGER RISK IN THIS
HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE REGIME. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY
7.5-8.0 C/KM... THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500-900 J/KG... AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-65 KT IS RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP... SO DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS REMAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY
IF NAM-WRF INDICATIONS OF A FAIRLY DEEP STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION COME
TO PASS. AND IF WE GET ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO
FURTHER STEEPEN LAPSE RATES... THE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BARELY UP TO ONE INCH AND WITH THE SWIFT TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE... DONT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN ABOUT A HALF
INCH OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN SPOT. WILL STILL CARRY MAXIMUM POPS OF
70-80% ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 50-70% IN THE SOUTH FROM VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS OF 54-61.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAX ROTATES
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE STATE... OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... MAINLY 68-73.
A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY... AND EXPECT CHILLY LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIVE DOWN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... BUT THIS TOO WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE IN THE EXISTING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF... ENDING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS OF 70-75 SATURDAY AND MID-UPPER 70S SUNDAY.
-GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE OVER EASTERN CONUS AT START OF PERIOD. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
BY MID WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. DURING
MID/LATE WEEK...S/W TROUGH AND BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. SURFACE AND 850 FLOW WEST/NORTHWEST WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS
STAYING NORTH OF AREA. THUS SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. GFS
INDICATING DEEPER POST FRONTAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THURSDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THEN COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY AS MENTIONED... LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND MORE CLOUDS. -RA

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BKN CU 4-6KFT THROUGH 00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FAY-GSB THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE
WESTERN TAFS (GSO-INT) BY 00Z. THEN SPREAD EAST TO RDU-FAY-RWI AFTER
02Z. OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ENDING WESTERN TAF AFTER 04Z...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS AFTER 08Z. -RA

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1244 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-290700-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1244 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT... THEN INTENSIFY
AS IT SWEEPS QUICKLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING. A FEW CELLS OR
SEGMENTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGH WINDS ALOFT TO BE
TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE OVER THE PIEDMONT NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN... INCLUDING THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS... TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES... ROCKY MOUNT... WILSON... AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 1 AM. TRAINED
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

GIH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>