Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SENT A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER FOR THE DEVELOPING MCS
OVER EASTERN NC. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE REACHED NEAR OR SURPASSED
SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS... ALONG A PERSISTENT TIGHT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCED
BY LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM RESIDUAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
CENTERS DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ECHO TRAINING
AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT HAVE PRODUCED SOME LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON... AND THIS COULD PERSIST IN THIS AREA WELL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE NAM INDICATES UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK JETLET LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD
ONTO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH... FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING. VERY ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE
STILL-FORMIDABLE ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
PATCHY FOG AS WELL. LOWS 67-73.

THURSDAY: MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PARKS ITSELF OVERHEAD... AND THE
OVERALL REGIME OF A SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER JET CORE WELL TO THE
NORTH AND A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW MATCH FAIRLY WELL WITH
PREVIOUS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CASES... AND WIDESPREAD MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S TOMORROW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
CONSIDERING THE MCS TRACK WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY THOUGH WITH CAPES NEARING 2000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY BUT IS
VEERING THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS... SO FEEL JUSTIFIED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ELONGATES AND
DROPS JUST OUR SOUTHEAST... AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN STALLS. THIS ALONE PUTS NC IN A
PATTERN OF INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE THE INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
BE AUGMENTED BY LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT UPSLOPE SE TO S FLOW. BUT ALSO
TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE POTENTIAL WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY... WHICH SHOULD FURTHER
DEEPEN MOISTURE AND MAY PRODUCE ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN
CWA AS WELL. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL FOCUS HIGHER POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR HIGHS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER... BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER SHAPING UP TO START ON A WET NOTE.
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLC PATTERN
WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH DEEP MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OFF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. ADDITIONALLY TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLC COAST PROPAGATING WEST WILL ADD TO INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT TO BKN CU 4-6KFT THROUGH 01Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS RDU-FAY/RWI VICINITIES THROUGH 01Z. AFTER 01Z
SCT CLOUDS 6KFT. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES BY 02Z. AFTER 08Z
PATCHY FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING RDU-FAY-RWI VICINITIES OCNLY LOWERING
VSBYS 3-5 MILES. POCKETS IFR VSBYS TIL 13Z. SCATTERED CU 3-5KFT
DEVELOPING TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
422 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-220830-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
422 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SPOT FLOODING WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
212 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

NCZ075>077-086-088-211915-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-HOKE-LEE-MOORE-
212 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LEE...HARNETT...
MOORE...CUMBERLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS WHICH INCLUDE
CARTHAGE...SOUTHERN PINES...LEMON SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT
BRAGG.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYTON                 35.65N 78.46W
06/21/2006                   JOHNSTON           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW BENSON             35.43N 78.61W
06/21/2006                   HARNETT            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRINCETON               35.47N 78.16W
06/21/2006                   JOHNSTON           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BLACK CREEK         35.71N 77.93W
06/21/2006                   WILSON             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BENSON              35.45N 78.55W
06/21/2006                   JOHNSTON           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

DM