Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CWA WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHERN TIER EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
REMNANTS OF ALBERTO COMING INTO PLAY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GREATEST EFFECT (HIGHEST POPS) EASTERN CWA DURING WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM
DIFFER ON HANDLING THE SYSTEM AS NAM MORE CONSISTENT WITH TPC TRACK.
GFS DRIER AND EVOLVES INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH. POPS IN LINE WITH
NAM SOLUTION. SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERN
CWA WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WEST....UPPER 70S EAST WITH LIKELY
POPS. DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER. HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. HPC GUIDANCE ACCEPTED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S...REACHING AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST TAF SITES DROPPING
FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER SLOWLY DROPS
SOUTH...LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCING VIS IN FOG AS MUCH COOLER AIR
SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO WARM...MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RA
LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
437 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-130845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
437 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS MORNING... THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-122015-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
231 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS
AFFECTED INCLUDE... ALBEMARLE... LAURINBURG... FAYETTEVILLE...
GOLDSBORO... AND SMITHFIELD.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             LAURINBURG              34.77N 79.47W
06/12/2006  E1.00 INCH       SCOTLAND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY OF LAURINBURG.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
307 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             LAURINBURG              34.77N 79.47W
06/12/2006  E1.00 INCH       SCOTLAND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY OF LURINBURG.

&&

BSD

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