Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 031619
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1218 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCC191-031630-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-060403T1630Z/
WAYNE NC-
1218 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT 
FOR WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 1216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
GOLDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE EAST OF GOLDSBORO 
NEED TO SEEK SHELTER NOW

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3553 7810 3523 7821 3522 7786 3552 7783

$$

WSS

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 031634
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1232 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCC191-031642-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-060403T1630Z/
WAYNE NC-
1232 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 1230 
PM EDT...


THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED WAYNE COUNTY. 
THERE WILL BE A LULL OF A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS 
AND STORMS AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3553 7810 3523 7821 3522 7786 3552 7783

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
941 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUING AN EARLY UPDATE FOR INCREASED POPS AND THUNDER THIS MORNING.
HEAVY CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS HAVE RETARDED TEMPS THIS MORNING BUT LOTS
OF DAYLIGHT LEFT AND EXPECT A STRONG REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 200 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006)

SYNOPSIS...

..THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...
.SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS OF WESTERN NC... AND INTO NORTHERN SC AT 200 AM. A
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE IA WAS MOVING NE... WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NEARING CHICAGO. A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SSW THROUGH IL AND EASTERN MO. COLD FRONT ALOFT FEATURE EXTENDED
FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SE TO EASTERN KY... THEN SW ACROSS TN... BEST
DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE CONVECTION... AND MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH. SEVERE STORMS WERE ONGOING OVER EASTERN KY AND NE TN AT 130
AM... AND WERE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS... WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE OVER THE SW NC MTNS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MANY OF THE WEATHER PARAMETERS TODAY POINT TOWARD A SEVERE WEATHER
DAY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. FIRST... THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN NC HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC. THE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT... ESSENTIALLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC WAS VERY DRY AND
STABLE. HOWEVER... VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE WARM FRONT... OVER E TN/KY. THE WARM FRONT WAS BEING DRIVEN OUR
WAY BY THE STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET ANALYZED ON THE UPPER
AIR CHARTS THIS EVENING... EXTENDING FROM MS INTO TN AND KY...
PUNCHING TOWARD NC. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN NOW AND
AROUND DAYBREAK... WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED. DUE TO THE CURRENT STABLE AND DRY RESIDENT BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER OUR REGION... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. BUT AT LEAST CHANCE POP NEEDED MOST ZONES.

MUCH MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT JUST WEST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS... IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE SUPER CELLS OVER THAT REGION APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL
LINE AT 200 AM... DRIVEN EASTWARD BY THE MID LEVEL DRYING AND CFA
FEATURE. THIS LINE MAY VERY WELL AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK... AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE
ONGOING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL ACT TO MOISTEN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER... MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A PORTION OF THIS
LINE TO BODILY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN TACT. THESE EVENTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS... AND WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. REGARDLESS... THE LINE WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE COMING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY TODAY... ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS... UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAKS... MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR... INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
60) - OR HIGHER COASTAL PLAIN... AND DAYTIME HEATING TODAY... ALL
POINT TOWARD A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. CAPES SHOULD REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY THEN.

A NEW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN VA... AND THE
COLD FRONT SURGES OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG BOWING PORTIONS OF THE LINEAR CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE LINE... WHICH MOST LIKELY WOULD OCCUR TO OUR NE... NEAR
THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OR TRIPLE POINT (WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS BACKED TO THE SE-S WITH SW-W FLOW ABOVE). BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
EXACTLY WHERE THE TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP. IF CLOSER TO NORTHERN
OR CENTRAL NC... THERE WOULD BE A STRONGER TORNADO THREAT HERE.

AN UPDATED STATEMENT WILL FRESHEN UP THE THREAT BY AROUND 400 AM.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES TODAY. BE
ADVISED THAT MODERATE RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NC
MEAN THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

CURRENT THINKING IS TO KEEP 40-50 POP THROUGH THE MORNING... THEN
LIKELY POP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR THE EXPECTED LINE OF
STORMS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH 75-82 NW TO S... DEPENDING UPON THE
BREAK UP OF THE MORNING STRATUS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
TODAY.

THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST DURING LATE AFTERNOON W...
AND BY MID EVENING EAST. POP REDUCED TO NIL WITH FROPA. SKIES ALSO
CLEAR RAPIDLY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH... AND DEW
POINTS WILL CRASH TO BETWEEN 25 NW AND 35 SE BY 12Z TUE. LOWS MOSTLY
40S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH NW FLOW.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED... WITH DIMINISHING WIND BY
LATE DAY. FROST THREAT APPEARS ONLY FOR WED NIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD... MAINLY PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... WHERE MID 30S ARE
STILL FORECAST.

MODERATION EXPECTED THU... THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRI AND SAT. NO
CHANGES.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL WEAKEN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
AS THEY MOVE EAST. SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND DIFFICULT TO TIME AT ANY ONE TAF SITE. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
TURN QUITE BREEZY BEFORE NOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30. THREAT OF SIG CONVECTION EXISTS THROUGH 00Z/04.
CEILINGS DISSIPATE AFTER DARK IN THE WEST AND IN THE EAST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

FOR TUESDAY... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOM AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE NW WINDS OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING AMOUNT OF DRYING RECENTLY BEHIND
FROPA... SO WILL GO EVEN LOWER WITH DEW POINTS. EXPECT TEENS INSTEAD
OF 20S. MIN RHS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 15 PERCENT NW... TO 25 PERCENT
SE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
HOPEFULLY... THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL IMPROVE WITH THE
RAIN TODAY... BUT IF NOT... RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TUE
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

ONLY VERY SLOW RH RECOVERING AND REDUCTION OF NW FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT... PROLONGING THE ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THREAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-040845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
500 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP WITH THE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING... THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OR
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
EVENTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REST
OF THE PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL INCREASE.
IN ADDITION... THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER
THIS REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AS RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE DAMPENED MONDAY... WHICH WOULD
REDUCE THE THREAT OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR OR GROWTH. STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HAIL             PITTSBORO               35.72N 79.17W
04/03/2006  E0.50 INCH       CHATHAM            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MARBLE TO DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HAIL             OAKBORO                 35.22N 80.33W
04/03/2006  E0.50 INCH       STANLY             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL...LESS THAN 3/4 INCH.

0840 AM     HAIL             3 N DENTON              35.68N 80.11W
04/03/2006  E0.50 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL...LESS THAN 3/4 INCH.

0942 AM     HAIL             CARY                    35.78N 78.80W
04/03/2006  E0.50 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL...LESS THAN 3/4 INCH JUST SOUTH OF
            REGENCY PARKWAY AND TRYON ROAD.

0948 AM     HAIL             CARY                    35.78N 78.80W
04/03/2006  E0.25 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT CARY TOWNE CENTER...
            INTERSECTION OF MAYNARD ROAD AND WALNUT STREET.

&&

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-031600-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON
1047 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL AS PRODUCE
SLICK ROADS.

SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SMITHFIELD...
WILSON...NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON...TARBORO...ENFIELD AND
SCOTLAND NECK. MOVE INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH AS THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 AM     HAIL             10 NW ZEBULON           35.93N 78.44W
04/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 96.

1020 AM     HAIL             WENDELL                 35.78N 78.37W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 64 BYPASS AT
            ROLESVILLE ROAD EXIT.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1136 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             1 E ROCKY MOUNT         35.95N 77.78W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF ATLANTIC
            AVENUE AND US HIGHWAY 64 BYPASS.

1114 AM     HAIL             1 E ROCKY MOUNT         35.95N 77.78W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON GEORGE STREET.

&&

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1200 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ043-078-031700-
WILSON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILSON...GOLDSBORO
1200 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH THROUGH
WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON. PEA SIZED HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

VINCENT