Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PERSISTENT
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS WITH AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN TN
THROUGH SW NC. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THAT AREA AS MID-LEVEL CAP (PER KFFC
SOUNDING) IS OVERCOMED FROM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF SFC HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A FEW STORMS COULD MEANDER INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN STORMS. STORMS WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME SPREADING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT THOUGH AS THEY
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE WILL LEAVE NORTHERN HALF DRY. UNDER PARTLY SKIES
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AS SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WESTERLY
FLOW SETUP LOW WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
SUBSIDENCE DRYING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WILL UNDERCUT MOS AND LOWER AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW TO MID
IMPULSE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS 130KT JET MOVES
ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WITH RR QUAD REGION PASSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LINGERING SFC FRONT ALONG UPSTATE SC WITH INSTABILITY
GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 60 KTS AS WELL
AS UPPER JET PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH PWS INCREASING AOA 1.3
ACROSS THE NORTH TO 1.5 ACROSS THE SOUTH. INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS QPF PREFERRED SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
PRECIP VERSES THE NAM THAT SPREADS THE PRECIP INTO A SINGLE BLOB.
MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND INSTABILITY. HIGHS
LOWER 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BLOCKY CLOSED LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND/NEWFOUNDLAND WILL FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS DOMAIN BY
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WAVY AND HIGHLY CAPRICIOUS
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 75
TO 80. LOWS 52 TO 57.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC ORIGIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ATOP THE MEAN RIDGE. LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CANADIAN. CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL NC IN WARM SECTOR AS AREA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW.  TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS 60 TO 65.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KNOTS OR SO WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNSET.
MOSTLY UNLIMITED CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF LOW VFR BROKEN. EXPECT
SOME CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH WITH SHARPENING OF CONFLUENCE
ZONE BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH FOR UNLIMITED
CEILINGS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...RLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
533 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-210930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
533 AM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...THE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO GOLDSBORO. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ALL STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING OR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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