Winter Storm Watch 9, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT TUE OCT 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...CALM BEFORE THE STORM...

CURRENTLY...RATHER QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. IR SAT PIX
SHOW AN AREA OF UPPER LVL MOISTURE MOVNIGN ACROSS THE S TIER OF THE
CWA. WAT VAP SHOWS THIS MSTR IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK CUTOFF OVER THE
CALIF. LOCALLY...SFC OBS SHOW WEAK TROUGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS TO OUR W WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS WEAK CA
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. PERIODS OF HI CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE S PART OF THE CWA. I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA. IN THE GRIDDS...I DID COOL THE MAXES OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...CA SYSTEM MOVES OVER REGION. SYSTEM IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE MTNS MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...AND ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT (<1). WITH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOLD BE RATHER MILD. BY LATE TONIGHT
SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER SE CO IN ADVANCE OF VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)

METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS AMOUNT OF IMPACT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORM WILL HAVE ON CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BY SUNSET
WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS PUSH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATER
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED OVER
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

IMPRESSIVE QG ASCENT NOTED OVER CWFA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH 700 MB WINDS HOWLING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 06Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY.
HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE MAJOR REVISIONS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND/OR EVEN SLOW DOWN THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THIS 4TH/5TH PERIOD METEOROLOGICAL EVENT...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. STILL EXPECT THAT THE COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF THE
LONG TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THURSDAY...WHILE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOST AREAS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR
RATHER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION/COLLABORATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1217 PM MDT TUE OCT 24 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-251830-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1217 PM MDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PRESENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON THE
PLAINS. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

ONE LOCATION FAVORED FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THE PROJECTED
STORM PATH IS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. IF THE PROJECTED STORM PATH
CONTINUES...HIGHWAY 24...INTERSTATE 25 AND HIGHWAY 94 IN NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY MAY BE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY THIS EVENT.

IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TO PRODUCE SNOW. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF TURN OF THE WINDS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CORRECTED SPELLING IN HEADLINE...