Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 252057
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
254 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

COC009-252130-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060525T2130Z/
BACA CO-
254 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

AT 249 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD ALSO 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. 

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BACA COUNTY BETWEEN 300 PM AND 
330 PM MDT. THE TOWN OF TWO BUTTES IS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.



LAT...LON 3737 10301 3721 10300 3728 10247 3764 10265

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 252108
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
307 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

COC009-252117-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060525T2130Z/
BACA CO-
307 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL
BACA COUNTY...BECAUSE THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS 
ENDED. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN STRENGTH BUT HAZARDOUS 
LIGHTNING MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA. 

LAT...LON 3737 10301 3721 10300 3728 10247 3764 10265

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
236 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...MAIN CONCERN IS POPS AND FIRE WX POTENTIAL...

MAIN FIRE WX CONCERN TODAY WILL BE OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS/VALLEYS. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BASICALLY ABOVE 500 MB. 325K CHARTS
SHOW THIS MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM NM EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WITH
WEAK OMEGA AND RATHER LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS...FEEL THAT NAM IS
PROBABLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER THE REGION. WITH VERY STEEP
LOW-MID LAPSE RATES...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM POP UP...BUT
COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM. LOW HRS
WILL MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE ON THE DRY
SIDE...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR VIA SAT AND OBS THIS
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT ADD ISOLD
POPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WHERE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER
ONCE LLJ PICKS UP. BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP THERE WILL BE 00-06Z
TONIGHT. OTHER FIRE WX CONCERN WILL BE WITH LOW RH AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET FOR FIRE WX
HEADLINES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CO THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING
TO ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOK GOOD...IN THE
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPS. MAIN TEMP CHANGE WAS TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT WITH RIDGE
BUILDING AND RISING H7 TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW
REMAINING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN RANGES...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE HIGH RUNOFF WITH THIS STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(FRI THROUGH WED)

...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE...
...SEVERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/EVE...

FRI...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. RELATIVELY WEAK SWLY FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. STILL HAVING SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM HAS A
BROAD COVERAGE OF 0.01 INCH OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CO...WHILE THE
GFS HAS NOTHING. BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A THIN LAYER...H5-H4...OF
MOISTURE ON ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL THERMAL CAP. OF
COURSE...THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...9.5-9.8 C/KM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER AND
INVERTED-V STRUCTURE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF ANY HIGH LEVEL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED...IT MAY ONLY BE JUST SPRINKLES AT ITS
WORSE. VIRGA-BOMBS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40KTS. CURRENT HOT TEMPERATURES...10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE...STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE COMBINATION OF MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS...HAINES VALUES 5-6...AND MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT STRESSED
FUELS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE SFC
WINDS WILL BE THE KEY FOR ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DATA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBLE THREAT
AREAS BELOW 9K FT MSL ROUGHLY FROM 12PM-9PM FRI/26. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY IS THE WIND. GENERALLY...REGIONAL CONSENSUS IS TO HOLD
OFF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND LET THE DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.

SAT...THIS DAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A SEVERE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY. RIDGE WILL BE WELL TO THE E AND S ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A BROAD DEEPENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. VERY DEEP SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WRN CO. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR
A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS WIDESPREAD RED FLAG DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIS PREDICTIONS. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
BE +14C TO +17C. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR
IN PLACE. HUMIDITY RECOVERY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WILL PROBABLY
BE POOR. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING...UP TO H5...SFC DEW
POINTS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS TO AROUND 8 PERCENT IN SERN CO. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES
OF 6 WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL CNTRL...S CNTRL...AND SERN CO.
OBVIOUSLY...THE MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS WILL BE IN
PLACE. SFC CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN ERN CO
AND THE DRYLINE WELL INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS HAS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 16-30KTS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA.
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-40KTS. NAM/GFS HAVE H7 WINDS
OF 20-40KTS SAT AFTN/NGT JUST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH CO SAT NGT. IF ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS
ARE JUXTAPOSED...OUR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FORECASTS ARE
REACHING INTO THE SEVERE CATEGORY(E.G. HAINES 5/6...RH LESS THAN
13 PERCENT...WIND GREATER 25KTS...WIND GUSTS GREATER 35KTS) FOR PARTS
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SERN CO. NOT TO SAY THIS PATTERN WILL
BE EXACTLY LIKE THE HAYMAN/2002 EVENT...BUT IT IS BECOMING VERY
SIMILAR. IT BEING A HOLIDAY...PRIMARILY OUTDOORS...WEEKEND IN CO
MAKES THINGS A LITTLE MORE CRITICAL. CERTAINLY TOO EARLY FOR A
HEADLINE AND THINGS COULD CHANGE...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON.

SUN THROUGH WED...SUN COULD BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
WITH MODERATE W-SWLY FLOW CONTINUING AS A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A LITTLE
COOLER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL BEING VERY LOW. MON THROUGH WED LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE
SAME. CURRENT LOW POPS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BE MOVING IN AND OUT OF EXTREME ERN CO. BY
WED AND THU...THERE APPEARS TO BE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A LARGE
MIDLEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EVEN THOUGH THE SFC/PBL DRYLINE WILL BE MIGRATING IN AND
OUT OF ERN CO. HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RETURN WITH H7
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING BACK INTO +16C TO +19C WITH IN THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. METZE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF CNTRL...S CNTRL...AND SERN CO ON FRI/26...12PM-9PM MDT.
SEVERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF CNTRL...S CNTRL...AND SERN CO ON SAT/27...11AM-12AM MDT.
FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. METZE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH TERRAIN SNOWMELT CONTINUES OVER THE CONTDVD WITH THE SNOWPACK
LEVEL AROUND 12K FT MSL. THE CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS
CONTINUE TO FILL WITH WATER. THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT CANON CITY...CNCC2...
IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ACTION STAGE...8FT. METZE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

44/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
647 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-261300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
647 AM MDT THU MAY 25 2006

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT STRESS FUELS...VERY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL LESS THAN
1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ROSE/METZE