Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
243 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

...MAIN CONCERN IS INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. AS OF 1230
PM...FRONT WAS ON PALMER DVD MOVING SOUTH. ISOLD TSRA HAD DEVELOPED
BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS C MTNS. DWPTS OVER EC CO IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS PLANS ADDING TO CAPE.

REST OF TODAY...MAIN CONCERN IS MARGINAL SVR THREAT. FLOW WILL GO
UPSLOPE AFTER FROPA. I BELIEVE DWPTS WILL MIX OUT A BIT...BUT SHOULD
SEE MID 50S OVER MOST OF PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 60
OR TOO OVER NE SXNTS OF SE PLAINS. JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION DURING PRIME HEATING ASSISTING VERTICAL MOTION. EXPECT A
FEW SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 TO 70 MPH POSSILBE.

TONIGHT...BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OVER FAR SE CO AS
CONVECTION CONGEALS OVER THIS REGION. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER FAR SE PLAINS AS SYSTEM DROPS SE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH CLOUDS OVER
PLAINS TONIGHT? DECIDED TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF PLAINS
BUT DECIDED NOT TOO MENTION ANY FOG FOR NOW.

TOMORROW...IT WILL BE MOIST AND COOL...BUT HOW COOL? WIND FIELDS
WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS PRINTING OUT SOME HEFTY QPF AS SECOND SURGE
COMES DOWN ON PLAINS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. GIVEN
FORCING AND SOME HEATING...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...IT COULD
ROTATE. SPC ALSO HAS UPGRADED AREA TO SLIGHT RISK. FOR THIS REASON
DECIDED TO MENTION SVR THREAT INTO TEXT PRODUCTS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORCING...AND IF WE REALIZE THE CAPE...SOME
OF THE STORMS TOMORROW COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. FF WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BURN SCARS AND N
PUEBLO COUNTY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A PROBLEM THIS YEAR.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE TROF
MOVES EAST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY DUE TO A WEAK 700 MB TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM.

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED DAYTIME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS VERY
WEAK MONSOON MOISTURE FLOW UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INTERACTS WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER MONDAY. -JKH-

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1042 AM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-011645-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1042 AM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH...AND EAST OF A LINE...FROM BLACK
FOREST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE WIND SHEAR NECESSARY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

HODANISH