Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
242 PM MDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BUT
A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO TODAY WAS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.  AN AREA
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD REMAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED.
DEW POINTS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE E PLAINS...BUT
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F. THE CLOUD COVER
AND E-NE SFC WINDS HAVE SLOWED WARMING TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FAR E NEARING 90 F AS OF 230 PM.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
PREDOMINANTLY PULSE-TYPE...WITH ZERO REPORTS OF ANY TYPE OF HEAVY
RAIN OR LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A WATCH TO MAKE
SURE NO FLOODING ISSUES ARISE. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE S AS IT WEAKENS THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION LINGERING
THE LATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
PERSISTS WITH COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES...AND WITH WHAT HAPPENED TODAY
DECIDED TO PUSH THEM DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION. ENOUGH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WARRANTS ISOLATED CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MTS...SO ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH SOME TO WORK WITH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM...IN
THE 16 TO 20 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE...SO HIGHS NEAR 100 IN THE
PLAINS...EXCLUDING COS AREA...AND 60S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS LOOKS GOOD.

MONDAY MORNING...AXIS OF RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ENTERS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE...BRINGING SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SOLUTION...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO CHANCE
CATEGORIES...BUT WILL BRING DOWN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY
OR TWO ON TUESDAY...AS THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BELOW 12 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE PLAINS...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE POPS BACK NORTH...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
RISE...BUT NOT TO LEVELS WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 90S IN THE PLAINS...TO THE 60S THROUGH 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE
RIDGE...HAVE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -TLM-

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
647 AM MDT THU JUL 27 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-281300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
647 AM MDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMRS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND EL PASO COUNTY. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

STORM MOTION THIS MORNING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON PLUME SHIFTS BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.