Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 242143
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT MON JUL 24 2006

COC003-242151-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-060724T2200Z/
ALAMOSA CO-
341 PM MDT MON JUL 24 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALAMOSA
COUNTY...

THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING
MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BUT MAY STILL 
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS IT MOVES ACROSS ALAMOSA COUNTY 
BETWEEN 340 PM AND 415 PM MDT. 

LAT...LON 3772 10551 3771 10603 3737 10601 3739 10571
      3756 10553

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN MOVING SOUTH.
RADAR SUGGESTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
AND SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
TALL STORMS BUT FAIRLY LOW LEVEL REFLECTIVITY CORES.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND MAY GO BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND
WEST EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE HAS DROPPED TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND PESKY SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE AROUND
THE EDGES. IT IS THESE SHORTWAVES ARRIVING AT PEAK HEATING THAT
HAVE KICKED OFF THE THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT SO THINGS SHOULD CALM DOWN AFTER
THAT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS TO OUR NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY COMING AROUNG THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY BUT
TIMING WILL BE TOUGH. PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE BEST GUIDANCE
FOR THE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME SO HELD ON TO BROAD AREA OF
20 TO 30 POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE SW U.S....ALLOWING A PREDOMINANT LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SNEAK UP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER AZ AND NM...WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIDE THE NW FLOW DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
COLORADO. A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE EASTERN CO PLAINS TUES
NIGHT...WITH A RESULTANT BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER THE E ON WED.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR ALL AREAS...EVEN DURING THE
LATE NIGHT PERIODS...REFLECT THE MOISTURE TAP AND DIFFICULT-TO-TIME
DYNAMIC TRIGGERS. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM
WARMING TOO MUCH...AND ONGOING MAX T GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS
WILL OPEN THE PATH FOR MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED PCPN ALL AREAS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THE MTS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THERE WILL BE
THE ISOLATED RISK OF CONVECTION FOR THE SW MTS AS WELL...SO
INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS THERE. ALSO...SW FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS ON
FRI TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. REST OF TEMP
GRIDS ALREADY REFLECTED THIS TREND. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

21/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
657 AM MDT MON JUL 24 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-251300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
657 AM MDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
NOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER
100 PM.  DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

BY THIS WEEKEND...MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.