Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-140000-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2006

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
ENOUGH HUMIDITY REMAINS FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLOW OF AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A HUMID FLOW OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN
OF A CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AMS
IS IN PLACE OVER SCNTRL AZ PORTION OF THE PHX CWA...WITH SHALLOWER
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE WRN THIRD...LIKELY NO DEEPER THAN 5K PER
KYUX VWP. SO...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...LIFT WILL
AGAIN BE THE BIG UNKNOWN...WHICH IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE IN THE
NORMALLY LIGHT WIND REGIMES OF THE SWRN MONSOON. SCNTRL DESERTS HAVE
HAD A DAY TO RECOVER FROM BIG EVENT FRI EVENING...AND TEMPS ARE UP
QUITE A BIT FROM YDA MORNING. SO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS MAINLY FROM ERN LA PAZ/YUMA COUNTIES EWD LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS...
AS ARE THE LOW-GRADE MONSOON POP NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW. AFTER THIS...
NOT SO SURE ABOUT CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR TUE OVER MARICOPA CTY.
LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT SURELY BACKING OFF ON
PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT THIS FAR E...SO WILL RE-ASSESS THE NEED TO
PERHAPS PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR TUE. FOR NOW...CURRENT
FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DRY FLOW OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.

A HUMID FLOW OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN
OF A CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

ESTLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
754 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2006

AZZ021>023-026>028-141500-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
754 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THIS EVENING.

IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EVENING MONDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ024-141500-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
754 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE...AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ020-025-CAZ031>033-141500-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
754 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2006 /754 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ESTLE