Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-090600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI SEP 8 2006

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK FLOW OF AIR ALOFT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A LIMITED AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AMS GIVING RISE TO ISOLD CONVECTION AGAIN TO THE N AND S
OF THE GREATER PHX AREA...MUCH LIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS. AND...WE
STILL HAVE A JET STREAK TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS NRN AZ IN THE SHORT
TERM THAT WILL PROBABLY KEEP TSTMS LONGER-LIVED AND FIRING WELL INTO
THE NIGHTTIME OVER AZ PORTION OF CWA. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS OVER SCNTRL AZ...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE OUT IN WRN PTN
OF CWA. EVENING FORECASTERS WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
ISOLD SEVERE CONVECTION.

AFTER TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED IN MORNING DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS ARE
AT DEFINITE ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING EXPCD
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE DEGREE OF
DRYING THE NAM IS FORECASTING APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE
OF FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ERN HALF OF
CWA SATURDAY...THEN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN E AND SE OF PHX SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WILL NUDGE AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH READINGS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE VERY STUBBORN TO LEAVE THE ENTIRE CWA...GIVEN THE
WEAK FLOW PATTERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR KPHX NEXT WEEK STILL APPEAR MARGINAL FOR ANY DESERT
CONVECTION...AND STEERING FLOWS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MOVING
ACTIVITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO OUR N THRU E. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ZONE
28 AND ALL OF ZONE 24 DURING THE EXTENDED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

ESTLE

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