Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006
Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 2006, 1:20 AM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 55 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 30, 2006, 1:20 AM MST (08:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 30, 2006, 2:15 AM MST
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 94 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1782 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KPSR 300820 FFWPSR AZC013-301015- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 120 AM MST SUN JUL 30 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CAVE CREEK... IN NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 315 AM MST * AT 110 AM MST...HEAVY RAIN FALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CAUSED A RAPID RISE IN THE FLOW OF CAVE CREEK WHICH FLOWS THROUGH THE TOWN OF CAVE CREEK. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. LAT...LON 3379 11201 3377 11193 3385 11191 3387 11197 $$ DKS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 29, 9:50 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 9:50 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-301200-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2006
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO AND VERY HUMID AIR OVER OUR
AREA MEANS THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A
DRIER FLOW OF AIR ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK...AND DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER DAYS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA...AND OUR
CWA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER
NWRN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS THERE 2 DAYS AGO AND WAS PROGGED TO
MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE STATE...BUT IT HAS BASICALLY NOT MOVED MUCH
AT ALL. IT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO OUTBREAKS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
NRN AND FAR ERN AZ...FROM TIME TO TIME BUT OUR CWA HAS SEEN LITTLE
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...INCLUDING THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE HIGH
MOISTURE THAT LINGERS OVER US...AS SEEN IN THE GOES PWAT IMAGERY...
THE 00Z PHOENIX RAOB WITH 1.96 INCHES PWAT...AND THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...STORMS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS...PHOENIX ONLY REACHED 97 DEGREES FOR A HIGH AND YUMA ONLY
102. AMAZINGLY...PHOENIX HAS NOW HAD 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...NOT LONG AFTER 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 114. MUCH OF THE SRN DESERTS ONLY SAW RATHER FLAT
CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...AND THERE WERE ONLY A FEW STORMS
THAT FORMED EARLIER DOWN NEAR AND SOUTH OF GILA BEND.
AT 9 PM TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED TO THE SW OF
THE NEW MEXICO LOW...AND OVER NERN ARIZONA. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING WITH THE NLY STEERING WINDS AND SOME HAVE MADE IT INTO ZONE
24...PROMPTING A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE AREA NEAR
PUNKIN CENTER. LATEST NAM REALLY DOES NOT MOVE THE NEW MEXICO LOW
MUCH...AND KEEPS LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND OUR ERN CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SKIES OVER THE WRN DESERTS AND SERN CA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND LITTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THERE
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO BACK
OFF ON THE POPS/WEATHER FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
STORMS GOING THRU THE MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME DYNAMICS
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR EAST...FEEL A CHANCE FOR
STORMS REST OF THE NIGHT IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY SEEING HOW
MORNING CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN OUR ERN CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND ONLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT ENSURE THAT
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCNTRL ARIZONA.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY HUMID AIR CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NEW MEXICO THAT...A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...HAS INSTEAD MOVED VERY LITTLE. AS A
RESULT...SO FAR...IT HAS NOT BROUGHT MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THE RAIN THAT WAS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
NEW MEXICO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
THIS MAY REPEAT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAINLY EAST PHOENIX.
THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A DRIER FLOW OF AIR ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK.
THIS DRIER FLOW OF AIR WILL BRING A DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
NEW MEXICO.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRIER FLOW OF AIR ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE WEST COAST...WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
AND WARMER DAYS TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA WHERE ENOUGH HUMID AIR MAY CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE KPSR AND KIWA TAFS...DO NOT WANT TO OVERDO USE OF TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WILL USE A VICINITY REMARK AFTER
08Z. HOWEVER...DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND SOME DYNAMICS...EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AND THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING PAST
12Z. OTHERWISE 06Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LA PAZ COUNTY
EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...ZONES 21 THROUGH 24...27 AND 28 THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
CA...NONE
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
11/ELLISHazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 6:01 AM MST, 19 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 601 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006 AZZ021>023-026>028-301315- WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY- GREATER PHOENIX AREA-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY- NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY- 601 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH FURTHER MOISTURE DECREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. AZZ020-025-CAZ030>033-301315- LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY- JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA- RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY- 601 AM PDT SAT JUL 29 2006 /601 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOCATIONS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN...SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME SLIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. AZZ024-301315- SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS- 601 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WITH FURTHER MOISTURE DECREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 11:46 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa | |
| Jul 30, 2:31 PM MST | Flood Watch | PSR | 18 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2006Every flash flood warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.