Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 AM PST WED MAR 08 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST LATER TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. STRONG OROGRAPHICS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL DECREASE THU
NIGHT. THE NEXT PAC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI. THE ENTIRE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE SOME
WARMING GOING ON AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING OVER THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE QUITE SO
EXTREME TODAY...SO SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT MAKE IT UP TO THE PASSES IN
THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING HAS ALREADY SPREAD INLAND OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS COMING IN...EXPECT TO
SEE A PRETTY WET DAY TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG DRYING
IN UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
130W...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SHARP TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT...BOTH SUGGESTING A VIGOROUS FRONT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL ADD A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO UPGRADE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE CASCADES TO BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES MAINLY THIS EVENING.

AS BEFORE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE LATER HEADLINES
FOR SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATION LATER TONIGHT AND THU...AND WINDS IN THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW WILL REFRESH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED PERIOD. THU THROUGH FRI A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW UPPER
TROUGH...ULTIMATELY DIGGING THE MAIN LOW S OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI
NIGHT. POPS TO DECREASE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOMES DRIER. FOR SAT THROUGH MON WILL DRY
OUT FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES DUE TO SOME EASTERLY FLOW. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...
LOWERING DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 6 AM. RATHER NASTY FLYING WEATHER FOR WED...AS
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT...BRINGING PLENTY OF
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. COULD TOP JUST
AT STORM FORCE WINDS WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN GUSTS. SHOULD BE
STRONG GALES IN AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ONSHORE RATHER QUICKLY...WITH
WIND TURNING WESTERLY AND EASING IN THE EVENING. NEXT CONCERN IS THE
BUILDING SWELL THAT ARRIVES WED NIGHT. LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE 23
TO 26 FEET SWELL WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
.OR/WA...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH THIS
          EVENING.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
         HIGH WIND WARNING S WA AND N AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TODAY.
         HIGH WIND WARNING COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS THIS
          AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
         BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT N AND CENTRAL OREGON
          CASCADES AND S WA CASCADES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS
AST +9885 PDX +9755 SLE +9755 EUG +9755
&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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