Snow Advisory 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO SE IDAHO WITH
STRONG JET UNDERCUTTING H5 LOW NEAR 145W 45N.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
INCREASING OVER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  WITH VERY STRONG H7 JET OF 50 TO
55 KNOTS WHIPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO STRONG DYNAMIC SETTING UP
IN SNAKE PLAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH MODELS OVER .3 LIQUID PRECIP.
BIG CAVEAT IS POTENTIAL STRONG SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE LIMITING
PRECIP...BUT AT THIS POINT THINK ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH H7 JET AND
STRONG VORT TROF TO WARRANT SNOW ADVISORY.  SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY MAY GET WARNING AMOUNTS BUT AROUND BURLEY THINK
SHADOWED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS
WELL.  BUT FOR NOW ADVISORY ALL OF SNAKE PLAIN.  HEAVY SNOW WARNING
CONTINUES FOR ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES EXCEPT 32 AND THINK AMOUNTS OF A
FOOT OR MORE WILL BE COMMON.  CONTINUED WARNINGS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.  COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE CORNER BY 18Z WED BUT STAY
IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
NORTH OF H3 JET WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH NORTHERN NV AND NORTHERN UT
DURING DAY WED.  KEPT HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY WED WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE...LESS THAN TONIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS OVER
BUT CYCLONIC SFC FLOW CONTINUES.  GENERALLY WENT WITH WETTER GFS
DEPICTION FOR TOMORROW.  STAY IN MOIST NW FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BUT STARTED TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS FRIDAY.  KEPT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY...NEXT TROF PROGGED QUICKER AND NEW NAM WETTER ON FRIDAY
THAN PREVIOUS RUN.  BUT CONCENTRATED ON FIRST 36 HOURS AND DIDNT
CHANGE PREVIOUS FCST ON GRIDS THAT FAR OUT.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT WITH LITTLE OR NO REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE THUS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHC POPS. SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND AND PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA (PER GFS). LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE EC
KEEPING UPPER LOW ALONG CA COAST AND BUILDING A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE
OVER FCST/A FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY FCST/A WILL BE BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SO MAINLY DRY BOTH SUN/MON. UPPER
RIDGE WILL FOLD INTO THE AREA FOR TUE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TUE/WED
AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC TROF FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
WINTHER

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VIS/SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF BYI TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTHER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A HEAVY SNOW WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. PLEASE REFER TO BOIWSWPIH FOR DETAILS.

&&

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