Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 PM MDT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT SHEARING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS
MAINLY THE UPPER VALLEY AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS ON THE NOSE OF AN
INCOMING 140KT 300MB JET. INCOMING JET IS ALSO PRODUCING STRONG
SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH A HANDFUL OF SITES
STEPPING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS. PASSAGE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER
GUSTY NW FLOW TO SPILL OUT OF CNTRL MOUNTAINS WITH ONSET OF SNAKE
PLAIN CONVERGENCE EVENT LIKELY. HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE ERN
HIGHLANDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING LEVELS SO NO HIGHLIGHTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AS DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION LATE
TONIGHT EXPECTING A DRIER NORTH FLOW TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. GFS
TRYING TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER EXTREME SW WYOMING BY
FRIDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE WRF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE AND HENCE MUCH
LESS PRECIPITATION. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE LATE TONIGHT WITH
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL
FAVORING THE SE HIGHLANDS. SE IDAHO REMAINS ON WRN FRINGE OF BROAD
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO
SATURDAY AS DRY NORTH FLOW SETTLES OVER REGION. WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ENTER PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVER
ERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR-MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED EASTWARD BUT SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING THIS EVENING
WILL RESTART PRECIP TONIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE BASIN HIGHLANDS UNTIL 04Z.
BROKEN-TO-OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  BRW
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK AND WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 MPH FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 50-60
PERCENT ACROSS ALL ZONES...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WELL ABOVE 80
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS.  CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN RETURN TONIGHT AND
WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.  BRW
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
540 AM MDT THU SEP 21 2006

IDZ017>025-031-032-221200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
540 AM MDT THU SEP 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 INCHES
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 8000 FEET LOWERING TO
NEAR 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDERS
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
334 PM MDT THU SEP 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             REXBURG                 43.83N 111.79W
09/21/2006  M0.25 INCH       MADISON            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ALMOST COVERING GROUND.

&&

RHD

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