Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY IS OF SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
NORTH OUT OF UTAH INTO FCST AREA. CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER GREAT
SALT LAKE THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPED
AROUND IT. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WORKING
NORTH OUT OF UTAH AS WELL WITH ANOTHER LEADING BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF WAVE OVER CENTRAL MTNS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES ARUOND AND OVER ONE INCH.
STORM MOTION REMAINS SLOW AROUND 10 KTS THUS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY REGARDING LOCATION/TIMING OF BEST QPF
VALUES. THUS KEPT POPS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
SLIP THROUGH REGION THURSDAY ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAYS WAVE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BUT LOWER LEVELS
MUCH DRIER THUS KEPT POPS MORE ISOLD/SCT. BY FRI...RIDGE AXIS
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FCST AREA WITH HEIGHTS RISING FRI
INTO SAT. KEPT LOW POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOR WEAK IMPULSES
TRYING TO BREAK THROUGH RIDGE. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUN AS GFS
TRIES TO FLATTEN RIDGE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR REMAINDER OF FCST...STUCK WITH LOW POPS
AS GFS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE WITH ANOTHER
NRN PACIFIC LOW BUT SOLN MUCH FASTER/STRONGER THAN EC SOLN. KEPT
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE AS RESULT. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING
NORTH ACROSS THE NRN UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MORNING UNTIL SUB-TROPICAL WAVE OVER ERN
NEVADA LIFTS NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WAVE SHOULD
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND/OR MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF REGION
TONIGHT WITH DRIER LOOKING SW FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS REGION. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-
IDZ019-IDZ020-IDZ021-IDZ022-IDZ023-IDZ024-IDZ025-IDZ031-IDZ032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
447 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

IDZ017>025-031-032-061100-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
447 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST...AND THE
RAINFALL MAY BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.