Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
328 AM MDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COMBINED WITH A STRONG JET STREAM ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN IDAHO OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID-DAY.
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WILL
ALSO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

A SECOND PULSE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MORE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL
MIGRATE EAST INTO MONTANA...AND DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY EXITING
NE THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINAL SITES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LOWER
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DRYING OUT TONIGHT IN WAKE
OF EXITING UPPER WAVE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE IMPROVING TONIGHT. MODELS
INDICATING A STIFF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE NGM) SHOWING WINDY
CONDITIONS.  WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED
TODAY EXPECT THESE WILL SIPHON OFF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM THUS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH 20G30KT WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

CANTIN/HUSTON

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