Special Marine Warning 83, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.OVERVIEW...
AS MAX MAYFIELD SAID TODAY, IM TIRED AND WANT TO GO HOME. I KNOW
THE FEELING THIS MORNING. SINCE COMING IN LAST EVENING HAVE BEEN
WORKING TWO CELLS. ONE A SUPER CELL FROM BERKS CO PA TO ATLANTIC CO
NJ. AND NOW AS WE GO TO PRESS A CELL IS MOVING INTO BUCKS CO PA HAD ITS
ORIGIN(I THINK) IN NW PA THE MOST FRUSTRATING PART IS THAT THEY ARE
COUNTY BORDER-HUGGERS. MY SINCERE THANKS TO THE SPOTTERS WHO WERE
OUT IN THIS WEATHER AND CALLED WITH SOME EXCELLENT AND TIMELY
REPORTS. THANKS

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STRONG HAIL MAKING CONVECTION IS ENTERING NW
BURLINGTON COUNTY AND NOT THAT FAR FROM THE OFFICE HERE. VERY
IMPRESSIVE CELLS IN SPITE OF THE TIME OF DAY. ONCE ITS OVER, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND EASTERLIES SET IN COOLING THINGS
DOWN ESP ERN ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH THEN BEGINS A MOVE TO THE NORTH AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING KICKED OFF BY THE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. LOOKS AS THROUGH THE RAIN RECORD THAT MIGHT
HAVE BEEN FOR AUGUST MIGHT NOT BE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF TUESDAY, BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IF ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING, THEN
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND GO TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES.  WILL REASSESS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MORNING TAF PACKAGE
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.  WILL LIKELY ADD SOME TEMPO
GROUPS TO SOME OF THE TAFS.  ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
MEANING LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WAVEWATCH BRINGS 5 FT SEAS SUNDAY EVENING.  THE LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE WITHIN A FEW HOURS, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS LOOKED
AT.  WITH ACTIVE WX ONGOING THIS MORNING AND MOST DATA INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND THE THIRD PERIOD, WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
DETERMINE WHEN AND IF THE FLAGS WILL BE HOISTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

OVERVIEW...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-261100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
752 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL,
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             KING OF PRUSSIA         40.10N 75.38W
08/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

1202 AM     HAIL             KING OF PRUSSIA         40.10N 75.38W
08/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

1202 AM     TSTM WND GST     KING OF PRUSSIA         40.10N 75.38W
08/26/2006  E60.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 65 MPH

1215 AM     HAIL             PHILA                   40.00N 75.15W
08/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       PHILADELPHIA       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE ROXBOROUGH SECTION OF THE CITY

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     PHILA                   40.00N 75.15W
08/26/2006  E55.00 MPH       PHILADELPHIA       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 55 MPH WIND GUST IN THE ROXBOROUGH SECTION OF
            THE CITY

1229 AM     HAIL             PHILA                   40.00N 75.15W
08/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       PHILADELPHIA       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SOUTH PHILADELPHIA NEAR
            LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD

1235 AM     HAIL             HADDON HEIGHTS          39.88N 75.07W
08/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN HADDON HEIGHTS

&&

NIERENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HAIL             BLACKWOOD               39.80N 75.06W
08/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL REPORTS OF
            NICKEL AND PENNY SIZED HAIL WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY, SOME REPORTS INDICTED HAIL WAS COVERING THE
            GROUND.

1255 AM     HAIL             2 N LINDENWOLD          39.84N 74.99W
08/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN VOORHEES.

&&

NIERENBERG