Special Marine Warning 37, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN H5 TROUGH WILL BE (FINALLY) CROSSING OUR
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS AND IT WILL AFFECT MORE OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM NEAR
LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN SHARPLY AS IT PULLS
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF AFTER THAT, DRIER AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

KDIX AND KDOX SHOWING STRONG LOW TOPPED CELLS THAT ARE PRODUCING
NEAR SVR HAIL ACROSS BERKS AND CHESTER COUNTIES AS OF 230 PM. OTHER
CELLS WILL POP UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SPS HAS PLACED ERN PENNSYLVANIA IN A SLIGHT
RISK...SO WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CELLS FOR ANY SVR
POTENTIAL. SEE OUR LATEST SVR, SPS OR NOW PRODUCTS FOR SHORT TERM
UPDATES.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR
DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, OUR REGION WILL COME
UNDER AN INCREASINGLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO THE WINDS WILL
PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. OUR MARINE ZONES WILL
HAVE SCA FOR THE WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE H8 TEMPS OFF
THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW READINGS AROUND 5C ON SATURDAY, SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MAY BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT GETS.
WE WILL SHOW ONLY A HIGH AROUND 60 AT KMPO. THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S MOST AREAS AND LOW 50S IN CENTER CITY
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LATEST PROGS FROM HPC NOT SHOWING ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERS BECOMES
MORE ZONAL EARLY IN THE WEEK, BEFORE AMPLIFYING AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE DEW POINTS WILL HAVE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BACK TO THE HUMID SIDE AND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO
THE WEST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WHEN
THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON THURSDAY, SO WE WILL CARRY A CHC FOR
THEN. THE GFS AND ECMWF PROGS BOTH SHOW THE THU TIMING FOR TROUGH
PASSAGE ATTM.

OUR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS (THAT IS...MAXIMUM
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S KPHL AND LOW 70S KMPO) BY MONDAY AND WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER
50S TO MONDAY AND RISE ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES BY MID WEEK. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE EARLY IN THE WEEK (WITH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW) BUT SLOWLY BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 3:00 PM, THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY RAN FROM THE DELMARVA
UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST, PASSING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND SUNSET.  WITH THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION IT WAS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
TIME TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  WEVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF
CUMULONIMBUS IN THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND WELL ISSUE
AMENDMENTS TO KEEP UP WITH THE ACTUAL TSTM TRENDS.

AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY LATE TONIGHT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.  WERE EXPECTING A
GUSTY WIND TO DEVELOP AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES ON ITS WAY UP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND.  ONCE THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER UP INTO MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THE GRADIENT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH
TO BRING US BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455 FROM 6 AM
SATURDAY      TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO

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