Special Marine Warning 31, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
QSTNRY FNT SW-NE ACRS CWFA...FM DOV-E OF PHI-VCNTY HPN. SFC LOPRES
IN NRN VA...W/ ATTENDENT CDFNT DWN SW SPINE OF APPLCHNS. AS XPCTD...
SCT STRNG TO OCNL SVR TSRA HV MOSTLY WEAKENED AS AREAL CVRG INCRSD.
/A FEW CELLS AHD OF OR AT THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN ARE THE XCPTN TO
THIS./ ALSO...FOR THE MOST PART...SHRA/TSRA CAN BE FOUND ALNG AND W
OF FRNTL BNDRY. HWVR...SIGNS OF TRAINING EVIDENT IN RADAR LOOP.
PLUS...GOOD SWATH OF MSTR RICH AIR ASSOC W/ LLJ AHD EVIDENT IN VAPOR
LOOP AHD OF FRNT SHUD CONT TO FEED SYSTM.

PROGRESSIVE 18Z GFS HAS PERFORMED MUCH BTTR THAN NAM. STILL...CDFNT
WL BE ACRS CWFA TNGT...W/ SFC LOW TRACKING THRU NJ. CONSIDERING HIGH
PWAT /AOA 2.0IN/ AND DECENT INSTBLTY /AOB -2C/...ALNG W/ GOOD LLVL
CNVGNC...FVRBL UPR JET DYNAMICS APPCHG...AND STREAM OF MSTR FM THE
SW...THINK FFA WARRANTED...AND WL LV THAT IN PLACE. PER TEMPS...THEY
WONT BE ABLE TO DROP MUCH BLO CRRNT DEWPTS...AND GOING FCST PRETTY
MUCH REFLECTS THAT. HV CLEANED UP DEWPTS AND WND GRIDS. BUT...CHGS
WL BE MINOR....AND SHUD NOT AFFECT ZFP.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF GFS BEING THE BTTR PERFORMING MDL WUD BE MORE
EVIDENT IN 2ND-4TH PDS. GOING FCST WAS QUIKER THAN NAM...BUT NOT
AS FAST AS CRRNT GFS MAY IMPLY. UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES /A LOT OF
WX TO GET THRU 1ST/...WL LV THOSE GRIDS ALN...AND BRIEF ONCOMING
SHIFTS. CERTAINLY...WUD BE UNWILLING ATTM TO XTND FFA BYD CRRNT
10Z EXPIRATION TIME BFR EVOLUTION OF NXT 6 HRS CAN BE WITNESSED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BALTIMORE MD-WASHINGTON DC/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TSRA FIRING ACRS WRN/NRN CWFA ATTM...NEARER TO GOOD FORCING OF
CDFNT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND HTG CONTS...XPCT AREAL CVRG
TO INCR. INSTBLTY GOOD...BUT NOT OUTSTANDING. PWAT HIGH...AND XPCT
HVY RAINERS TO CONT. THERE WAS ENUF BINOVC ERLR SO THAT SOME CELLS
GREW.

LRG UPR TROF AXIS/CUTOFF LOW WL PIVOT ACRS MID ATLC THIS WKND. SFC
BNDRY WL BECOME INCRSGLY PARALLEL W/ UPR FLOW...WHICH WL LEAD TO THE
ALREADY SLOW-MVG FRONT TO STALLING OUT. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS WL OCCUR. SIGNATURE ON VAPOR LOOP IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING
SFC LOW HAS BEGUN TO SPIN UP ALNG FRNTL BNDRY...WHICH WL ENHANCE
RAFL EXTENT...DURATION...AND TTLS. NAM MUCH SLOER...TRACKING SFC LOW
UP TO PHL BY 18Z SAT...WHERE IT SITS...EVENTUALLY KICKED EWD BY UPR
TROF. GFS MUCH WEAKER W/ SFC LOW AND MORE PROGRESSIVE W/ THE CDFNT.

LIKE THE SLOER TRENDING NAM BASED ON CRRNT TRENDS. HWVR...NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD THO TO THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF NAM SFC FEATURES. HV
GONE THE ENSEMBLE RTE-- CAT TSRA TNGT...CAT HVY RA TMRW...TRENDING
TO LIKELY AFTN RA W/ CHC IN THE MTNS...CHC SAT NGT...AND SCHC SUN W/
AFTN CHC IN THE MTNS. MOS BLEND ON TEMPS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH THRU MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL HGTS WILL CONTINUE
NEAR SEASONABLE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIP
THREAT WILL BE DUE TO MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS ALONG PREFERRED
COASTAL/BAY SEABREEZE AREAS AND ALONG HIGHER ELEV RIDGES IN FAR NWRN
ZNS. PWAT VALUES WILL AVG AROUND ONE INCH MON-THU. ON THU A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...GIVING NEXT BEST CHC FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND ACRS THE REGION
TOWARDS FRI...USHERING DRIER AIR ON FRI.

MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS WATERS ATTM. CDFNT WL CROSS SOMETIME SAT...VEERING
WNDS TO W/NW. CDFNT SHUD CLR WATERS SAT NGT...W/ WNDS PICKING UP A
BIT IN NW FLOW SUN. NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.

FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK THE MARINE AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A OCEANIC LOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO THE EAST. PRES
GRAD STARTS OUT DECENT SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXES AS
THE LOW MOVE EAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071 UNTIL 6 AM
     SATURDAY.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019 UNTIL 6
     AM SATURDAY.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ001 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ008 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-030845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
444 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE
COULD BE FLOODING OF STREETS, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ALONG THE
QUICK RISING STREAMS AND CREEKS.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING CECIL
COUNTY MD, NEW CASTLE DE, EASTERN PA, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ AND SW
NJ.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             8 WSW MEDIA             39.88N 75.53W
06/02/2006  M1.25 INCH       DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1.25 INCH HAIL IN CONCORDVILLE

&&

ROBERTSON