Special Marine Warning 19, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED THE PRECIP AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IT HAS
LEFT A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN ITS WAKE.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK, SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS MIGHT BRUSH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE, DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES, APPROACHES
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  THAT FEATURE SHOULD BRING A RETURNING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA NORTHWARD.  THE AXIS OF THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY MORNING WEVE
ADDED THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.  WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER MAY BE LIMITED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE SECOND SHORT WAVE PASSES ON MONDAY, WERE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT, DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD REACH OUR
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING OUR REGION AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED RAPIDLY AROUND 18Z AS THE SHOWERS APPROACHED
FROM THE W AND AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH.  HOWEVER,
AFTER THIS MIXING OCCURRED, WINDS HAVE AGAIN BECOME EASTERLY.  SATL
ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.  THEREFORE, AS
SOME OF THE GFS MOS INDICATED, FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL AT ALL TAF
SITES.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASED WESTERLY GRADIENT HELP MIX OUT
ANY FOG THAT FORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH NO
HEADLINES ON THE DEL BAY.  WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KTS AND THE SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT SCA WILL BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE OF THE FCST AREA TUE EVENING AND
COOL AIR FROM THE NW MOVES DOWN ON A NW GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...STAUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-241000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
500 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             GALENA                  39.34N 75.88W
04/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       KENT               MD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MPD