Coastal Flood Watch 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE INITIAL UPPER AIR, ONE WOULD GUESS THE WEATHER
PATTERN WOULD BE TRANQUIL. HOWEVER, THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A SHORT WAVE IN THE
UPPER FLOW CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER LATE ERIE LATE THU NIGHT
AND THEN STRENGTHENS CUTS THE UPPER LOW OFF FROM THE FLOW FRI AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS SOUTHEAST WHILE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH
OF THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF, BUT NOT
REAL HIGH ON THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS IT HEAD TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. IT ISNT TOO OFTEN THAT ONE SEES A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
VIRGINIA HEADING SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS, ESPECIALLY THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

AS FAR AS THE FORECASTED DETAILS GO...

TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS. ALSO, SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER DAYTIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST, THE
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND THEREFORE THE POPS GENERALLY COME DOWN
WITH THE LOWEST POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE MILD UNTIL FROPA.

THURSDAY, DRY COOL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SCT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING FROM PHL SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE ENDING. NORTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OF THE SKIES, DELMARVA ZONES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE NW AND THEN
HEADS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THERE IS ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE.

THEN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND AFFECT AREAS FROM PHL SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE NORTH OF
PHL, ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT GETS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OR EAST TO ALLOW ANY RAIN OR LINGER SHOWERS TO END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, TODAYS WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END
TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BEFORE THE WEEK IS OUT, WE MAY NEED TO TURN THE HEAT
IN OUR HOMES. ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT REACH 60, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY RAIN AND WIND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST,
IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE
MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES OR UPGRADES. THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE
EXTENDED IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE EXACT MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT. STICKING WITH THE GFS RESOLUTION FOR
NOW. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN DRIER ON SUNDAY. THE COASTAL AND THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE
MORE ALONG THE OUTER BANDS OF THE STORM AND COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN
INTO MONDAY, BUT KEEPING THE POPS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER
60S IN MOST AREAS BUT WILL THEN WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT
WEEK. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
INCREASE OUR WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORE REGIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR
TAFS SIGHTS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THERE WAS A LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT 3:00
PM WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEHIND IT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  THE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN.  THE LINE PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH KRDG AND KABE UNTIL CLOSE TO
8:00 PM.  WEVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS FOR THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS FOR KTTN.

FOR OUR REMAINING TAF SITES, THE PRECIP SHOULD COME THROUGH AS A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND WERE NOT
EVEN ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A VSBY RESTRICTION.

BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, THE WIND SHOULD BECOME WEST NORTHWEST FOR
A BRIEF TIME, THEN IT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KABE AROUND
2:00 AM, KPHL AROUND 4:00 AM, AND KACY ABOUT 6:00 AM.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS (VFR CEILINGS) BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH SOME BREAKS LIKELY AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AT MID AFTERNOON, WERE STARTING WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.  WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BRISK
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.  WELL START A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AT 10:00 PM THIS EVENING TO COVER WIND GUSTS NEAR THE COLD
FRONT AND ALSO TO COVER THE SEAS BUILDING FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH TIGHTENS.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WELL EVENTUALLY NEED A
GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES...
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH TIGHTENS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE MAY HAVE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING ISSUES.  THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FULL
MOON ARE RATHER HIGH.  WE HAVE TIME TO LOOK AT ONE MORE GUIDANCE
CYCLE BEFORE MAKING A DECISIONS WHETHER TO PUT OUT A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH OR SIMPLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6
     AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>024-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-050900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
630 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH, A BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS
HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE MARINE FORECAST, AND DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THEM, TIDAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

UPDATED FOR CHARACTER OF POSSIBLE TIDAL FLOODING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KRUZDLO/MPD