Wind Advisory 5, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
241 PM PST THU JAN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES OF WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS IS MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INDUCE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 850 MB WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING ACROSS OREGON AND SHOULD RISE ABOVE
5000 FEET THIS EVENING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
INCHES BELOW 5000 FEET. IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...SNOW LEVELS ARE
LOWER AND WILL RISE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORIES AS THEY CURRENTLY ARE ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON. SNOW IS FALLING AT AND
ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND WILL ISSUE A SNOW
ADVISORY IN THAT ZONE ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR TONIGHT. HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE AND WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH TOMORROW.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ON FRIDAY DUE A MOIST SOUTH FLOW THAT WILL
PARTICULARLY AFFECT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES. THE COLD
FRONT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MORE PRECIP AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK OFF THE PACIFIC
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY...A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY...AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY. GFS HINTS AT A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY...BUT I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AFTER 7 DAYS. THERE MAY BE SHORT BREAKS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 1000-2000 FEET IN WASHINGTON AND 2000-3000
FEET IN OREGON SUNDAY...INCREASING MONDAY TO 3000-5000...AND
DROPPING TO 2000-3000 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SNOW
LEVELS REFLECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS...HIGHER WITH WARM FRONTS AND LOWER WITH COLD
FRONTS/TROUGHS. 76

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR KITTITAS COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM PST...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE
EXTENDED. ANOTHER VERY WET AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
4500 FEET OVER CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES TO 2000 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...MELTING SNOW AND MOIST TO SATURATED GROUND
ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH FRIDAY. 90

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO 2000-3000 FEET THIS EVENING AT KRDM...KDLS...KYKM...AND
TWB 368. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RA AND BR AT
TIMES AFTER 06Z. KPSC...KPDT...AND KALW WILL DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS
AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH RA AND BR THIS EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  54  39  48 /  60  60  60  40
ALW  41  54  40  48 /  60  60  60  40
PSC  39  49  38  49 /  60  50  60  30
YKM  34  42  33  43 /  80  50  60  30
HRI  38  50  37  48 /  60  50  60  30
ELN  33  40  32  41 /  90  60  60  30
RDM  37  49  34  42 /  60  60  60  50
LGD  34  43  36  41 /  60  50  60  60
5J0  39  52  38  43 /  60  40  60  60
DLS  38  45  37  47 /  80  70  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ORZ041-ORZ042-ORZ043.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ049.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WAZ024-WAZ501-WAZ502.
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ501-WAZ026.
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ502.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
76/90/90

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