Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THIS ZONAL FLOW, AS FRONT PUSHES SWD DURING THE FIRST PERIOD, WE
FACE THE TYPICAL UNCERTAIN SVR WX PATTERN. ETA/NAM SHOWS GREATER
CAPE S, BUT BETTER MOIST FLUX N EARLY THIS AFTN. BY 21Z, MOIST FLUX
INCRESES NR MGW, WHERE CAPE IS 2400. AND BY 00Z, THINGS COULD BE
DEVELOPING CNTRL AND SRN OH, WHERE FLUX GOES UP AND CAPE REACHES A
SMALL AREA OF 4500. CAPE DROPS BY 03Z, BUT FLUXING CONTINUES FROM
HLG SWD. WILL TRY TO MAXIMIZE POPS IN THAT REGION AT THAT TIME,
CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS. THINGS DROP S OF CWA BY 09Z MON. LIFTED
INDEX -4 TO -5 DURING THE 1ST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EXPECTED TO
WANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH IN UPPER FLOW. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
TUESDAY EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THEN CHANCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
HARD TO TIME EXACT TIMING OF AFTN/EVE TSTMS, BUT TRIED TO FOLLOW
UPPER VORT MAX AND MOIST FLUXES ARE MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM. THUNDER
SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 3 HRS, FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING RAIN, THEN
SOME CLEARING, AND A BIT OF DAWN FOG. MON AFT 15Z, SOME SCT CU BTWN
3 AND 5 THSD FT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-030715-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
STALLED FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH
TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

PAZ009-015-016-022045-
FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TIONESTA...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...
BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
50 MPH AND HAIL. THIS AREA IS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
MAY NEED A WARNING SOON.

OHZ048-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029>032-WVZ003-004-012-021-022-
022045-
COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-ALLEGHENY-
WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-
MARION-MONONGALIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COSHOCTON...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...
MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...
SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...
CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...
NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...WAYNESBURG...
FAIRDALE...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...OHIOPYLE...WHEELING...
MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
50 MPH AND HAIL. PONDING OF WATER CAN OCCUR IN LOW SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN OHIO, FROM MUSKINGUM COUNTY EASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENSBURG              40.31N 79.54W
07/02/2006                   WESTMORELAND       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

TPARRISH